Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets are pricing in an 88% probability that the Chicago Bears will score over 11.5 points in their NFL divisional round playoff game against the Los Angeles Rams. This high confidence level, translating to an implied probability of 88%, indicates the market views this outcome as very likely. With the "Yes" share trading at 88 cents on Kalshi, the consensus is strong that Chicago's offense will clear this low bar.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary factors are driving this high probability. First, the 11.5-point team total is historically low for an NFL playoff game, especially for a home team. The Bears' season-long scoring average, even accounting for offensive inconsistencies, comfortably exceeds this threshold, making the "over" a baseline expectation. Second, the specific matchup favors Chicago's ability to score. The Los Angeles Rams' defense, while formidable, has shown vulnerability against the run this season. This plays directly into the strength of the Bears' offense, which is built around a powerful rushing attack. Market sentiment reflects the view that even a conservative, run-heavy game script should yield multiple scoring drives for Chicago.

What Could Change These Odds

The primary risk to the current consensus is an early defensive or special teams touchdown by the Rams creating a significant lead, potentially forcing Chicago into a one-dimensional passing game against a strong Rams pass rush. This could disrupt their offensive rhythm and limit scoring opportunities. Additionally, any in-game injury to key offensive players, particularly the starting quarterback or primary running back, could immediately shift the live trading odds downward. The thin market volume of approximately $1,000 means the current 88% price is sensitive to new information or sharper money entering the market before kickoff.