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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-35 House seat? | Poly | 92% |
Will the Republican Party win the CA-35 House seat? | Poly | 7% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 election for California's 35th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by official ballot listings and final election calls from designated resolution sources. The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026, as part of the national midterm elections. California's 35th district is located in the San Gabriel Valley region of Los Angeles County, encompassing cities like El Monte, Baldwin Park, and West Covina. The district is currently represented by Democrat Norma Torres, who has held the seat since 2015. The 2026 election will occur during a period of significant political transition, following the 2024 presidential election and potentially shifting national dynamics. Interest in this market stems from its function as a real-time indicator of political sentiment in a historically Democratic but demographically evolving district. The outcome could signal broader trends in Southern California politics, particularly regarding Latino voter preferences and suburban political realignments. The district's composition and electoral history make it a noteworthy case study for understanding how demographic changes and national political currents influence local congressional races.
California's 35th congressional district was created following the 2010 census and first contested in the 2012 elections. Democrat Gloria Negrete McLeod won the initial election with 55.2% of the vote. The district's boundaries were slightly modified during the 2020 redistricting cycle but maintained its core demographic and geographic profile. From its creation through the 2024 election, the district has consistently elected Democratic representatives. Norma Torres succeeded McLeod after winning the 2014 election with 59.1% of the vote. Torres's victory margins have varied, from a high of 71.5% in 2016 to a low of 56.7% in 2022, reflecting changing political environments. The district's voting history shows strong Democratic performance in presidential years, with Joe Biden receiving 64.3% of the vote in 2020, but tighter margins in midterm elections. The 2022 midterm election, where Torres won by 13.4 percentage points, provides the most recent benchmark for the district's partisan lean in a non-presidential election year. This historical pattern suggests the 2026 midterm could see a more competitive race than presidential year elections, though still favoring Democrats based on recent results.
The outcome of the CA-35 election matters because it represents one of 435 votes in the U.S. House of Representatives, where partisan control often hinges on a handful of competitive districts. A party flip in this district could indicate broader political shifts in Southern California's diverse suburban communities. The district's population is approximately 53% Latino, making it a bellwether for Latino political preferences in a region where these voters increasingly determine electoral outcomes. A change in representation could affect federal policy priorities for the district, including transportation funding for the I-10 corridor, support for local educational institutions, and environmental regulations affecting the San Gabriel Valley. The election's result will also influence the political career trajectory of the winner, potentially providing a platform for future statewide office in California. For prediction market participants, the race offers insights into midterm election dynamics two years before they occur, serving as an early indicator of national political trends.
As of early 2025, Representative Norma Torres has not publicly announced her retirement plans for the 2026 election cycle. She continues to serve in Congress and maintain her district office operations. Candidate filing for the 2026 elections will not open until early 2026, following the timeline set by California election law. Political operatives from both parties are likely conducting preliminary assessments of the district's demographics and voting trends. The California Democratic Party is expected to strongly support Torres if she seeks re-election, while the California Republican Party must decide whether to target the district as part of their 2026 national strategy. Local political observers are monitoring demographic changes and economic conditions that could influence the 2026 electoral environment.
California's 35th district includes all or parts of El Monte, Baldwin Park, West Covina, Pomona, and Ontario. The district covers central portions of the San Gabriel Valley in Los Angeles County and extends into southwestern San Bernardino County.
No. Since the district was created following the 2010 census, it has elected only Democratic representatives. Gloria Negrete McLeod served from 2013 to 2015, followed by Norma Torres who has represented the district since 2015.
Candidate filing typically opens in early 2026 and closes in March 2026, following the schedule set by California election law. The exact dates will be determined by the California Secretary of State's office and Los Angeles County Registrar.
The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index rates CA-35 as D+17, meaning it performs 17 points more Democratic than the national average. This indicates a strong Democratic lean but not necessarily a safe seat in wave elections.
California uses a top-two primary system where all candidates appear on the same primary ballot regardless of party. The two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election, even if they are from the same party.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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