$851.99K
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$851.99K
2
14
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In 2026 If X wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. <p>The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims, two presidents, disputed succession, the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market
Prediction markets currently price Rachida Dati's chances of winning the 2026 Paris mayoral election at approximately 47%. This near-50% probability indicates the market views the race as a toss-up, with no clear favorite emerging. Dati, the incumbent center-right Minister of Culture and former Justice Minister, faces significant but uncertain opposition. The combined trading volume of over $850,000 across platforms reflects substantial investor interest and provides moderate liquidity for this political event.
Dati's current positioning stems from her high-profile national role and incumbency advantage as the leading figure for Les Républicains. Her appointment as Culture Minister in January 2024 by President Macron provided renewed visibility and institutional backing. However, her odds are capped below 50% due to Paris's left-leaning electoral history, having been under socialist or green mayoral leadership for over two decades until 2027. The political fragmentation on the left, with potential candidates from the Socialist Party, Greens, and La France Insoumise, creates uncertainty about who will emerge as her main challenger, keeping the market in equilibrium.
The primary catalyst will be the official designation of opposing candidates, expected in late 2025. A unified left-wing coalition behind a single candidate would likely cause Dati's odds to fall sharply, while a continued split could boost them above 60%. Key political events, such as the European Parliament elections in June 2024 and their impact on national party dynamics, will serve as early indicators. Any significant shifts in President Macron's popularity or government stability could also affect Dati's ministerial standing and perceived viability.
This event is actively traded on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with prices closely aligned around the 47% midpoint. The minimal arbitrage opportunity suggests efficient information flow between platforms. Any minor discrepancies are typically due to differing participant demographics, with Polymarket's global, crypto-native users and Kalshi's U.S.-regulated user base sometimes weighting political intel differently. The convergence at this price point reinforces the market's collective judgment of a genuinely uncertain race.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2026 Paris mayoral election will determine the political leadership of France's capital and most populous city for a six-year term. The election is scheduled for March 2026, with a potential second round in April if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round. The mayor of Paris holds significant executive power over municipal services, urban planning, housing, transportation, and cultural policy for a city of over 2.1 million residents within its administrative boundaries, and influences the broader Paris metropolitan area of nearly 13 million people. This election is particularly significant as it follows the 2020 election where Socialist Party candidate Anne Hidalgo secured a second term, defeating challengers from the center-right Les Républicains and the presidential majority of La République En Marche. The 2026 contest will test the political landscape following the 2022 presidential and legislative elections, and will serve as a key indicator of party strength ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Interest in this prediction market stems from Paris's status as a global city, its substantial municipal budget of approximately 10 billion euros, and the mayor's role as a prominent national political figure who often influences broader French political debates on issues like climate policy, urban mobility, and social housing.
The modern office of Mayor of Paris was reestablished in 1977 after a 106-year hiatus during which Paris was directly administered by the national government. The first election under this new system was won by Jacques Chirac, who served as mayor from 1977 to 1995 before becoming President of France. This established the mayoralty as a crucial stepping stone to national power. Chirac's successor, Jean Tiberi of the same center-right RPR party (predecessor to Les Républicains), held the office from 1995 to 2001. The political landscape shifted dramatically in 2001 when Bertrand Delanoë of the Socialist Party won the election, ending 24 years of continuous center-right control. Delanoë served two terms from 2001 to 2014, implementing significant changes including the introduction of the Vélib' bicycle-sharing system and Paris Plages, the seasonal artificial beaches along the Seine. His successor, Anne Hidalgo, continued the Socialist hold on the mayoralty with her 2014 and 2020 victories. The 2020 election was particularly fragmented, with Hidalgo winning re-election with only 49.3% of the second-round vote against Rachida Dati's 34.5%, while three other candidates split the remaining votes. This fragmentation reflects the broader realignment of French politics since the rise of Emmanuel Macron's centrist movement in 2017, which has disrupted traditional left-right divisions.
The Paris mayoral election has significant implications for urban policy in one of the world's most visited cities, with approximately 38 million tourists annually. The mayor's decisions on transportation, housing, and environmental regulations directly affect the daily lives of residents and the experience of visitors, while also serving as a laboratory for urban policies that are often adopted by other French and European cities. The election outcome will influence the implementation of major infrastructure projects including the Grand Paris Express metro expansion, a 200 billion euro project adding 200 kilometers of automated metro lines, and the ongoing transformation of the city's public spaces as part of climate adaptation efforts. Politically, the election serves as a crucial mid-term test for President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party and the broader presidential majority, which has never controlled Paris city hall. A victory for the center-right Les Républicains could reinvigorate that party after its poor performance in recent national elections, while a Socialist victory would demonstrate the resilience of the traditional left in urban strongholds. The election also has symbolic importance as Paris prepares to host the 2024 Summer Olympics, with the mayor playing a key role in the Games' legacy planning and execution.
As of late 2024, potential candidates are beginning to position themselves for the 2026 election, though no official declarations have been made. Mayor Anne Hidalgo has not publicly confirmed whether she will seek a third term, though Socialist Party officials indicate she is likely to run again. On the center-right, Rachida Dati has maintained high visibility through her role in the European Parliament and regular media appearances, positioning herself as the presumptive Les Républicains candidate. The presidential majority remains divided on strategy, with some members advocating for Pierre-Yves Bournazel as their standard-bearer while others suggest supporting a different centrist candidate. The Green Party is conducting internal discussions about whether to run their own candidate or continue their governing coalition with the Socialists. Political observers are closely watching demographic shifts in Paris, particularly the movement of younger, more affluent voters into eastern arrondissements, which could alter traditional voting patterns established in previous elections.
The first round of voting is scheduled for March 2026, with a second round in April if no candidate receives an absolute majority in the first round. The exact dates will be set by the French government approximately six months before the election.
The mayor serves a six-year term, consistent with municipal elections throughout France. The current term began in July 2020 following Anne Hidalgo's re-election, and the next term will begin in July 2026 after the spring election.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
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| 46% | 47% | 1% |
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In 2026 If X wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. <p>The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims, two presidents, disputed succession, the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market
The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolv
The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be
If Emmanuel Grégoire wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: <p>The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appro
The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be
If Rachida Dati wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: <p>The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriat
The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be
If Pierre-Yves Bournazel wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: <p>The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the a
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