Name: UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)
End: 2026-03-29T03:59:59.999Z

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UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims) | PredictPedia

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9 markets tracked

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	67%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	61%
Will Lerryan Douglas win by KO or TKO?	Poly	59%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	45%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	32%
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)	Poly	27%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	23%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	21%
Will Julian Erosa win by KO or TKO?	Poly	16%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 29, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Julian Erosa" if Julian Erosa is officially declared the winner of the fight against Lerryan Douglas at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer, scheduled for March 28, 2026.

It will resolve to "Lerryan Douglas" if Lerryan Douglas is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 11, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Julian Erosa" if Julian Erosa is officially declared the winner of the fight against Lerryan Douglas at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer, scheduled for March 28, 2026.

It will resolve to "Lerryan Douglas" if Lerryan Douglas is officially declared the winner.

If the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $138.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $154.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.90)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 29, 2026): Vol $77.5K
  DATA: [Julian Erosa: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [Lerryan Douglas: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 29, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Julian Erosa win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 29, 2026): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Lerryan Douglas win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 29, 2026): Vol $59
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 29, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Over: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 29, 2026): Vol $58.9K
  DATA: [Over: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 29, 2026): Vol $292
  DATA: [Over: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 68.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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39¢

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UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)

UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)

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Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)

Markets (9)

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Lerryan Douglas win by KO or TKO?

Will Lerryan Douglas win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will Julian Erosa win by KO or TKO?

Will Julian Erosa win by KO or TKO?

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Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Lerryan Douglas win by KO or TKO?

Will Lerryan Douglas win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will Julian Erosa win by KO or TKO?

Will Julian Erosa win by KO or TKO?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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