Highest temperature in Milan on October 21?
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11
Highest temperature in Milan on October 21?
PM $0
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks which temperature bracket will contain the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at Malpensa Intl Airport Station, in degrees Celsius, on 21 October 2026 [1]. The resolution source is the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times that day, and the rules say the market "will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature" [1]. Temperatures are measured to whole degrees Celsius [1].
The rules contain several mechanics that affect how a bracket settles. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead [1]. If no data exists by that deadline, the market "will resolve to the lowest bracket" [1]. The market resolves once the first data point for the following date is published, or by 11:59 PM ET the following day, whichever comes first [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is a listed close, not the resolution rule itself, so readers should check the ET-based conditions above.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:09:21.731Z [1]. These are historical observation times, not live prices. The event includes 11 markets, all of them included in this sample, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. Within this single event, the highest Yes prices were 0.415 for 17°C, 0.395 for 16°C, and 0.27 for 18°C [1]. The "21°C or higher" bracket showed 0.245, and the "11°C or below" bracket showed 0.0205 [1].
These are displayed prices from one moment, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices across the 11 brackets sum to roughly 1.85, so they do not form a normalized distribution. Volume was not provided here, so it cannot indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price was where it was, and it contains no recent news or forecast information. It also does not show whether the snapshot still matches current prices. The sample lists every saved bracket for this event, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible temperature outcome. Because the contract settles on NOAA or a fallback source, readers should not compare these brackets with markets on other platforms or other resolution sources without checking their wording and close times.
References
- Polymarket: Highest temperature in Milan on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking for the highest temperature recorded in Milan on October 21, 2026. The contract rules say the market resolves to the temperature range containing the highest reading recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26 [1]. The event is therefore tied to one named weather station and one observation date, not to a citywide temperature. The rules name NOAA's data as the primary resolution source. They point to the highest value under the "Temp" column for all times on that day [1]. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the rules say the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used instead [1]. If no data exists for the observation date by that deadline, the rules state the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The rules also say the resolution source measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius, so settlement uses that level of precision [1]. The rules describe a correction process for clearly erroneous data. The market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) from the original release so the source can publish a corrected value. If no corrected value appears, Polymarket may issue a clarification [1]. Revisions to temperatures recorded within the market's timeframe are considered until the first data point for the following date is published, after which changes are not considered [1]. The event lists several temperature brackets, from a bracket for 11°C or below up to a bracket for 21°C or higher, each as a separate yes or no contract [1]. Each bracket resolves on the same underlying NOAA reading, so the brackets are alternative outcomes for one measurement rather than independent bets on different events.
Historical Context
The supplied Wikipedia entry on Milan describes the city as the capital and largest city of Lombardy in northern Italy, and says its metropolitan area is the largest in Italy [2]. That background explains the location but does not address weather on October 21. A separate Wikipedia entry on 2026 European heatwaves says that severe heatwaves began in late May 2026 and that temperature records were broken in several countries, including Italy [3]. The retrieved excerpt is cut off and does not describe conditions in Milan on the market date, so it should not be read as a forecast or as a description of the October event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single observed maximum temperature at one station on one date, as recorded by the named resolution source [1]. Because the rules specify the NOAA station, the timing of data publication, and the fallback sources, the outcome depends on those details rather than on general weather reports for Milan. Users who want to understand the contract should read the rules for the source, the deadlines, and the correction window, since those determine how and when a bracket can settle [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What temperature does this market measure?
It measures the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station on 21 Oct '26, using the highest reading under the "Temp" column for that day [1].
What happens if NOAA data is not available in time?
The rules say the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used if NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day [1]. If no data exists by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
When does the market resolve?
The rules say it resolves once the first data point for the following date is published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first [1]. The listed end time of 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z is shown in the event data, but the rules describe resolution by data publication or the ET deadline [1].
Can the recorded value be corrected after publication?
Yes, within limits. If the resolution source publishes clearly erroneous data, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) for a correction. Revisions are considered until the first data point for the following date is published [1].
Are the contract prices the same as probabilities?
The supplied data reports prices as snapshots from the provider at the observation time, not as executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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