Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

Name: Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
End: 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$43.28K

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Markets

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Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

Vol

$43.28K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $43.28K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $43.28K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Poly	36%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	19%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	17%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	14%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	9%
Will Israel Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	9%
Will Ron Dermer be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	4%
Will Yair Golan be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	1%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	1%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	0%
Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	0%
Will Eli Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$43.28K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2027 (141 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.

To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.

To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that gove"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $43.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $411.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $401
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Israel Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $8.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Benny Gantz be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $653
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Yossi Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $291
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Ron Dermer be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $517
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Eli Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $395
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $13.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $201
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Amir Ohana be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $201
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $959
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Yair Golan be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $233
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $561
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $10.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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