Name: Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
End: 2026-05-29T00:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.23K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.23K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%?	Poly	32%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.9% and 2.2%?	Poly	27%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 0.7% and 1.0%?	Poly	9%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 2.3% and 2.6%?	Poly	8%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%?	Poly	7%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be less than 0.7%?	Poly	6%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.1% and 1.4%?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

32%

Top Probability

$19.23K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 29, 2026 (14 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.

The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.57)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.1% and 1.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 29, 2026): Vol $396
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 29, 2026): Vol $780
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 29, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be less than 0.7%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 29, 2026): Vol $14.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.9% and 2.2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 29, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 0.7% and 1.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 29, 2026): Vol $537
  DATA: [Yes: 8.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 2.3% and 2.6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 29, 2026): Vol $379
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy