$39.91K
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3
$39.91K
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3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming Scottish Premiership game, scheduled for Wednesday, February 4, 2026 between Aberdeen FC and Celtic FC.
Prediction markets give Celtic FC about a 71% chance to win their Scottish Premiership match against Aberdeen on February 4, 2026. In simpler terms, traders collectively believe there is roughly a 2 in 3 chance that Celtic leaves with a victory. This shows strong, but not certain, confidence in the Glasgow club.
Two main factors explain these odds. First, Celtic has been the dominant force in Scottish football for years, consistently winning the league title. Their squad typically has more financial resources and top-tier talent than most opponents, including Aberdeen.
Second, the location of the match matters. This game will be played at Celtic Park in Glasgow. Celtic's home record is historically formidable, making an away win for any team a difficult task. While Aberdeen can be a tough opponent and sometimes earns draws or surprise wins, the combined weight of Celtic's quality and home advantage is what the market is pricing in.
The main event is the match itself on Wednesday, February 4, 2026. The only developments that could shift predictions before then would be major, unexpected team news. A significant injury to a key Celtic star, especially closer to the date, could make the odds tighter. Otherwise, the market will remain stable until kickoff.
For major soccer matches like this, prediction markets are often a good guide. They efficiently combine public information about team strength, location, and historical trends. However, they are not perfect. Soccer is a low-scoring sport where a single moment can change a game, so a 71% chance still means an Aberdeen win or draw is a very real possibility. The market is good at setting the baseline odds, but it cannot predict the unexpected bounce or referee decision that decides a real match.
The Polymarket contract "Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-04?" is trading at 71 cents, implying a 71% probability of a Celtic victory. This price signals strong confidence in the away side, but also acknowledges a significant chance of an upset or draw. With only $40,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is thin. This can exaggerate price moves and suggests the final odds are not yet hardened consensus.
Celtic's historical dominance of the Scottish Premiership is the primary driver. They have won the league title for 12 of the past 13 seasons and consistently finish with a vastly superior goal difference and points total compared to other clubs. In head-to-head matches, Celtic typically dominates Aberdeen. For example, in the 2023/24 season, Celtic won all four meetings against Aberdeen by a combined score of 10-1. Aberdeen, while often a tough opponent at their Pittodrie home, has not demonstrated the consistent quality to be priced as an equal. The market is effectively pricing in Celtic's superior squad depth and attacking talent.
The immediate factor is team news in the days before the match. A key injury to a Celtic striker or creative midfielder could shift the odds meaningfully in a thin market. Aberdeen's home form is another variable. While Celtic are heavy favorites, a match at Pittodrie Stadium is historically one of the more difficult away fixtures in Scotland. A major defensive error or red card for Celtic early in the match could quickly swing the real-time probability away from the 71% baseline. For a market with this little liquidity, even a modest new bet of a few thousand dollars could move the price several percentage points.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the Scottish Premiership football match scheduled for Wednesday, February 4, 2026, between Aberdeen FC and Celtic FC at Pittodrie Stadium in Aberdeen. The Scottish Premiership is the top tier of professional football in Scotland, and this fixture represents a classic clash between one of the country's traditional 'Old Firm' giants and a club historically considered the best of the rest. Celtic, based in Glasgow, is one of the most successful clubs in Scottish football history, having won the league title 54 times. Aberdeen, from Scotland's northeast, has won the title four times, most recently in 1985 under manager Alex Ferguson, but remains a formidable opponent, especially at home. The match is significant for the 2025-26 league season, with implications for the title race, European qualification, and domestic pride. Prediction markets allow participants to wager on specific outcomes like the match winner, total goals, or correct score, transforming fan speculation into tradable contracts. Interest stems from the historical rivalry, the clubs' current form, and the potential for the result to influence the championship. Celtic typically enters as the heavy favorite given their financial dominance and squad depth, but Aberdeen's home advantage and history of upsetting the Glasgow clubs at Pittodrie add uncertainty. The match is part of the league's midweek fixture schedule, which can affect team selection and fitness levels.
The football rivalry between Aberdeen and Celtic dates back to their first competitive meeting in 1905. While not as intense as Celtic's rivalry with Rangers, matches between Aberdeen and Celtic have produced significant moments in Scottish football history. The most famous period for this fixture was in the 1980s under Aberdeen manager Alex Ferguson. During that decade, Aberdeen broke the Old Firm duopoly, winning three league titles, four Scottish Cups, and the European Cup Winners' Cup in 1983. Aberdeen defeated Celtic in the 1984 Scottish Cup Final and the 1985 Scottish League Cup Final. In the modern era, Celtic has dominated the head-to-head record. In the 2023-24 Scottish Premiership season, Celtic won all three meetings against Aberdeen, scoring eight goals and conceding none. However, Aberdeen has occasionally secured memorable results at Pittodrie. In February 2023, Aberdeen held Celtic to a 1-1 draw, and in May 2022, they defeated Celtic 2-1 at home. Historically, Pittodrie has been a difficult venue for Celtic; in the 2017-18 season, Celtic's 69-game domestic unbeaten run was ended by a 1-0 Aberdeen victory there. This history of sporadic Aberdeen resilience at home contributes to the intrigue of each new fixture.
The outcome of this match has substantial sporting and financial consequences. For Celtic, dropping points against a direct competitor for European spots could prove costly in a tight title race, potentially affecting millions in UEFA Champions League revenue for the following season. For Aberdeen, a positive result boosts their chances of finishing in the top six or even the top four, which brings increased prize money and potential qualification for European competitions. This revenue is critical for clubs outside Glasgow to invest in their squads and infrastructure. Beyond economics, the match is a cultural event for both cities. In Aberdeen, a win against Celtic is a major source of civic pride and a temporary reprieve from the historical sporting dominance of Glasgow. For Celtic's global fanbase, expected victory in such fixtures reinforces the club's domestic supremacy. The result also influences the narrative around each manager; for Jimmy Thelin, a win would be a landmark achievement validating his project, while for Brendan Rodgers, anything less than a win would invite scrutiny.
As of the 2025-26 season, both teams are preparing for this midweek fixture within the context of the ongoing league campaign. The specific league positions and form of each club will be determined by results in the months leading up to February 2026. In the immediate build-up, team news regarding injuries and suspensions will be critical. For example, an injury to a key player like Kyogo Furuhashi or Bojan Miovski could dramatically shift the predicted balance of the match. The scheduling of the match on a Wednesday night may lead to squad rotation, especially if either club has a cup match the preceding weekend. The latest developments will be reflected in the pre-match press conferences, where managers Brendan Rodgers and Jimmy Thelin will provide updates on team fitness and tactical approaches.
The exact kick-off time will be confirmed by the Scottish Premiership and broadcasters closer to the date. Typically, midweek fixtures in Scotland kick off at 7:45 PM local time (GMT). Fans should check the official SPFL website or club social media channels for final confirmation.
In the United Kingdom, the match is likely to be televised live on Sky Sports, which holds the primary broadcasting rights for the Scottish Premiership. International viewers can check local broadcast partners of the SPFL or use the league's official streaming service, SPFL TV, where available.
The historical record is heavily in Celtic's favor. Since the formation of the Scottish Premiership in 2013, Celtic has won the majority of league meetings. In all competitions since 2013, Celtic has won over 70% of the matches played between the two sides.
Celtic is almost always the betting favorite due to their superior financial resources, squad depth, and historical dominance. However, Aberdeen's home advantage at Pittodrie Stadium can narrow the odds, making a Celtic victory less certain than it would be at Celtic Park.
Yes, Aberdeen has defeated Celtic at Pittodrie on multiple occasions. A notable recent example was a 2-1 victory in May 2022. One of the most famous wins was a 1-0 victory in December 2017 that ended Celtic's 69-game domestic unbeaten run.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 71% |
| Poly | 31% |
| Poly | 14% |
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