FL-20 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $25.8K
1
10
FL-20 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $25.8K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 45-50% at 23.5%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 45-50%23.5%
- Democrat 50-55%16%
- Democrat 60%+14.2%
- Democrat 55-60%14%
- Democrat 40-45%14%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $25.8K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 FL-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract family resolves on the margin of victory in the FL-20 House election. The rules define margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Democratic and Republican brackets refer to the party nominees, and independent candidates do not count as either option [1].
Boundary and tie rules matter for comparing brackets. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket [1]. If the election is not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The rules also say resolution uses the official count once certified, and that the rules describe the election as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That phrase describes the expected election date in the rules, not a separately announced event.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T07:51:23Z [1]. These prices describe that snapshot only. The listed end time for all contracts is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1].
The sample includes all 10 saved markets for this event, and the sample is not partial [1]. Nine are Democratic margin brackets, from "0%-20%" at a Yes price of 0.0165 up to "45%-50%" at 0.225 and "50%-55%" at 0.17. The highest Democratic bracket shown is the 45%-50% contract, which has the largest Yes price in the sample. The Republican contract, which asks whether the Republican candidate wins, has a Yes price of 0.0045 [1].
These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The nine Democratic bracket Yes prices sum to about 0.841, so they do not cover the full distribution in this snapshot. The sample does not list an "Other" contract, so no price for that outcome is available. Volume is not provided, so it cannot be used to judge liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is. It also does not establish the final vote count, certification timing, or whether a recount will occur. Because the saved sample comes from one provider event, prices here should not be compared with other platforms or other events without checking that the wording and close times match. Differences in price alone do not show an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: FL-20 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract belongs to a family of PredictPedia markets on the margin of victory in the 2026 election for Florida's 20th congressional district, a U.S. House seat. The provider describes the contract as resolving on the gap between the top two candidates, not on which party wins [1]. Under the rules, the margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is that candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The event contains a set of brackets, plus separate contracts on whether the Democratic or Republican candidate wins. For these purposes, the Democratic and Republican options refer to candidates nominated by those parties, and independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. Candidate names may appear in the contract for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as party nominee before election day, the contract is updated and resolves on the replacement [1]. The 2026 U.S. House elections in Florida are scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect the state's 28 representatives, one from each district. The primary elections took place on August 18, 2026 [3]. The provider lists the 2026 FL-20 election as currently expected on November 3, 2026 [1]. That is an expected date from the contract rules and reference material, not confirmation of a result or of any later event. How the contract resolves matters as much as the bracket itself. If the election result falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, it resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If a recount starts before the vote total becomes official, the market stays open until the recount is complete and the vote is certified [1]. The primary resolution source is the official result published by the state authority that certifies the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That deadline is a rule of the contract, not an expected date for the count.
Historical Context
Wikipedia's entry on the 2018 U.S. House elections describes those races as midterm elections held on November 6, 2018, in which voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts [2]. That article covers a different election and does not describe the history of the FL-20 seat, so it is only general background on how House elections are organized.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisive the 2026 FL-20 House result will be, rather than only who wins. Because the margin is calculated from the shares of valid votes for the top two candidates, the bracket that resolves depends on the official tally and on how those valid votes are counted [1]. Traders who read the brackets need to check the boundary rule, the treatment of independents, the tiebreak rules, and the June 30, 2027 fallback before interpreting a bracket as a view of a particular outcome [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes won by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is based on the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count as options in this contract?
No. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent those options, and independent candidates do not represent either party option [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
If a named candidate is replaced as party nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
How are ties handled?
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the rules describe several cases. A tie between two listed candidates resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. A tie between a listed and an unlisted candidate resolves to the lowest bracket for the listed candidate. A tie among two or more unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1].
What happens if results are not final by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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