FL-06 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $12.7K
1
9
FL-06 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $12.7K
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 20-25% at 28.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 20-25%28.5%
- Republican 15-20%24.8%
- Republican 10-15%21.6%
- Republican 35%+6%
- Republican 30-35%5.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $12.7K
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 FL-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event resolves on the margin of victory in the 2026 FL-06 House election, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. The excerpt says the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is a contract-rule description, not a confirmed event announcement.
Each bracket asks whether the margin falls in a specified range. The rules say that if the reported value "falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. The separate Democratic-win contract uses different wording and should be read on its own terms [1]. The excerpt also states that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market "will resolve to 'Other'" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T01:59:17.065Z [1]. These are the only time references supplied for the prices, so they describe this capture and should not be read as live quotes.
The sample covers 9 of 9 saved markets for this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. Yes prices for the margin brackets are 0.213 for 10% to 15%, 0.205 for 20% to 25%, 0.202 for 15% to 20%, 0.165 for 35% or more, 0.06 for 30% to 35%, 0.0475 for 25% to 30%, 0.0385 for 0% to 5%, and 0.0265 for 5% to 10% [1]. The Democratic-win contract shows a Yes price of 0.0105 [1]. The excerpt does not include a 0% to 5% contract wording that differs from others, and no bracket is missing from the nine captured markets, but the sample is not evidence that every possible outcome has been listed.
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Volume is not included in the excerpt, so it cannot indicate liquidity here. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1], which is a provider field rather than an announced result date.
What remains uncertain
The evidence is a single provider event on one platform. No other platform is supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The excerpt does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not report trader counts or any news. Because the bracket contracts are separate, their Yes prices should not be summed or treated as a complete distribution without checking the full rules for each contract.
References
- Polymarket: FL-06 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a prediction market tied to the 2026 U.S. House election in Florida's 6th congressional district. The market is titled FL-06 House Election Margin of Victory and sits in the Politics category. Its underlying event is the November 3, 2026 House election. The primary source describes that election as currently expected to be held on that date [1]. A Wikipedia article on Florida's 2026 House races says the elections will elect 28 representatives, one from each district, and will coincide with other federal and state elections. It also says the primary elections took place on August 18, 2026 [3]. The contract does not ask who wins the seat in general. Instead, it measures the margin of victory, which is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each candidate's percentage is calculated by dividing that candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The saved event contains nine bracket contracts, such as margins of 0 to 5 percent, 5 to 10 percent, and 35 percent or more, along with one contract asking whether the Democratic Party candidate wins. Each contract has a Yes and No side. A price is a snapshot of that contract at the time it was recorded. It is not an executable quote, a verified probability, or a measure of how many people traded. The contract reads the party names as the options. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican parties represent the Democrat and Republican options. Independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. The rules say that candidate names may appear in the contract for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as the party nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves on the replacement nominee [1]. The saved event lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC. That is the listed contract closing time. It is not the date the result becomes official, and the rules say resolution depends on the official count, not on the listed end time [1]. The Wikipedia pages in the supporting material are general background. Their retrieval does not confirm any current election status, candidate field, or result.
Historical Context
The supplied background on House elections is limited. A Wikipedia article on the 2018 United States House elections states that they were held on November 6, 2018, were midterm elections during the first term of President Donald Trump, and chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the 50 states to serve in the 116th Congress [2]. That article describes a different election cycle. It is included only to show how House elections are structured in general, and it does not describe the 2026 Florida District 6 race.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisively the top two candidates in one House race are separated once votes are counted. A market on margin brackets reflects a different question than a simple winner market. It asks how large the gap will be between the first- and second-place vote shares, using the official count and the percentage formula in the rules [1]. The contract also includes a separate Democratic-win market, so a trader can compare outcomes that involve who wins with outcomes that involve how large the margin is. Because the contract depends on official results, the timing of certification and any recount can determine when it resolves [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
If a named candidate is replaced as the party nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of that party [1].
What happens if the result falls exactly between two brackets?
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
How are ties handled?
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes and the tie is between two listed candidates, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the tie involves an unlisted candidate, the rules provide different outcomes depending on whether the other candidate is listed. If the tie is only among unlisted candidates, the market resolves to Other [1].
Does a recount affect when the market resolves?
If a recount is started before the vote total is official, the market remains open until the recount is finished and the vote is made official [1].
What happens if results are not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
What source determines the result?
The primary resolution source is the official results of the election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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