Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Headline PCE inflation in September

Total Volume

$8.39K

Events

Markets

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Headline PCE inflation in September

Vol

$8.39K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $8.39K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.39K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.0%?	Kalshi	99%
Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.1%?	Kalshi	98%
Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.2%?	Kalshi	91%
Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.3%?	Kalshi	89%
Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.4%?	Kalshi	52%
Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.5%?	Kalshi	16%
Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.6%?	Kalshi	7%
Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.7%?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$8.39K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September 2026 If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, including food and energy, published in the Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026. The first officially published September 2026 value will be used. Subsequent revisions will not affect the market outcome. This market will close and expire e

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Headline PCE inflation in September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, including food and energy, published in the Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026. The first officially published September 2026 value will be used. Subsequent revisions will not affect the market outcome. This market will close and expire e

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 

0.7%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, including food and energy, published in the Persona"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.7%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $94
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $119
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $45
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Headline PCE inflation in September

Volume$8.39K

Markets8

8 of 8

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KALSHI

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢

KALSHISports

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, including food and energy, published in the Persona

KALSHI

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHISports

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, including food and energy, published in the Persona

KALSHI

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHISports

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, including food and energy, published in the Persona

KALSHI

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.0¢No 11.0¢

KALSHISports

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, including food and energy, published in the Persona

KALSHI

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

KALSHISports

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

If the headline PCE inflation for September 2026 is above 0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, including food and energy, published in the Persona

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Headline PCE inflation in September

Headline PCE inflation in September

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Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

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Events (1)

Headline PCE inflation in September

Markets (8)

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

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Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

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Headline PCE inflation in September

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.1%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.3%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will headline PCE inflation for September 2026 be above 0.4%?

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