When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
$28.90M
2
6
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
$28.90M
2
6
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
When will Bitcoin hit $150k
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi contract asks whether Bitcoin will be above 149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, and it settles on an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index taken over sixty-second periods, excluding the top and bottom 20% of values [1]. Its rules also say the market "will close and expire early if Bitcoin crosses the specified price threshold" [1].
The Polymarket event asks whether Bitcoin will hit $150k, with separate markets for several deadlines from December 31, 2026 through December 31, 2027 [2]. The provider excerpt does not give the settlement method, so the two platforms' resolution mechanics cannot be compared from the supplied evidence. The Kalshi wording uses "above 149999.99," while the Polymarket wording uses "hit $150k," so the two contracts are not identical even though they share a theme and a December 31, 2026 deadline.
Reading the snapshot
The market data was observed at 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z and retrieved at 2026-10-13T06:53:11.446Z. These are snapshot times, not live quotes, and the prices may have changed since observation.
On Kalshi, the Yes price for the single saved market was 0.035 (3.5%) [1]. On Polymarket, the Yes prices for the December 31, 2026 market was 0.032, and they rose with later deadlines: 0.08 for March 31, 2027, 0.135 for June 30, 2027, 0.16 for September 30, 2027, and 0.26 for December 31, 2027 [2]. Within the Polymarket event, these prices rise as the deadline lengthens, which is consistent with a longer window, but the snapshot alone does not explain why.
The Kalshi and Polymarket December 2026 prices (0.035 and 0.032) come from different platforms and different wording, so they should not be averaged or treated as one estimate. A small price difference between them does not show an arbitrage opportunity, since fees, settlement terms, and executable depth are not in the evidence.
The listed close times also differ. Kalshi's listed end date is 2027-01-31T04:59:00Z, while its rules refer to December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET [1]. Polymarket lists 2027-01-01T05:00:00Z for the December 2026 market [2]. The excerpt does not explain these differences.
What remains uncertain
Both samples include all saved markets for their events, so this is not a partial sample. The provider data, however, does not establish that every possible outcome is listed. Prices are not verified probabilities, and volume data is not included here, so it cannot indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
References
- Kalshi: When will Bitcoin hit $150k?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z.
- Polymarket: When will Bitcoin hit $150k?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract family asks whether Bitcoin will reach a price of $150,000 within a set window. The Kalshi listing states that the market resolves to Yes if the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET [1]. The settlement method is specific. The contract is settled by taking an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) over any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, and data is used 24/7 to resolve the contract [1]. The threshold is therefore tied to a sampled, trimmed index average rather than a single trade or a quoted spot figure. The Kalshi rules also say that the market will close and expire early if Bitcoin crosses the specified price threshold [1]. That feature means the stated December 31, 2026 deadline is not the only possible end point for the Kalshi contract. Polymarket lists the same underlying question as a multi-date event. The saved event is titled "When will Bitcoin hit $150k?" and has a listed end time of 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z [2]. The individual markets in the saved event use different deadlines, including March 31, June 30, September 30 and December 31 of 2027, and December 31, 2026 [2]. Because these are separate contracts with separate end dates, a longer deadline covers a longer window and should be read as a different question from a shorter one. The dates in contract rules describe when a contract is defined to settle. They are not announced events, and they do not indicate that anything is scheduled to happen on those dates.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Bitcoin's price, as reflected in the specified benchmark, reaches or exceeds the $150,000 threshold within the defined window. On Kalshi, the benchmark is the trimmed average of BRTI over sixty second periods, with the top and bottom 20% of values excluded, and the rule applies around the clock [1]. This method means a brief spike in a single trade is not the sole determinant of the outcome under those rules. Polymarket's saved markets use the same headline threshold but divide it into several deadlines, which lets a reader compare how the defined window changes across contracts [2]. Anyone reading a price for these contracts should check the exact settlement wording and deadline in each market, since the markets are not identical.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Kalshi contract need to show to resolve Yes?
The market resolves to Yes if the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET [1]. The price used is the average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index in any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values [1].
Can the Kalshi market end before its listed deadline?
Yes. The Kalshi rules state that the market will close and expire early if Bitcoin crosses the specified price threshold [1].
Why do the Polymarket markets have different end dates?
The saved Polymarket event includes separate markets asking whether Bitcoin will hit $150k by December 31, 2026, March 31, 2027, June 30, 2027, September 30, 2027 and December 31, 2027 [2]. Each market is a separate question with its own deadline, so they should not be read as one combined outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Saved price pairs
0
No exact saved pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
