$756.74K
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12
$756.74K
1
12
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on whether Israel will conduct specific military actions against the Gaza Strip on a given date. The market resolves based on whether Israeli forces launch aerial bombs, drones, or missiles that impact Gaza's ground territory during a 24-hour period in Israel Standard Time. This type of market tracks a recurring feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, where military strikes from Israel and rocket fire from Gaza create cycles of violence. The interest stems from the high human and political costs of these actions, their impact on regional stability, and their role in broader diplomatic negotiations. Recent years have seen several major Israeli military operations in Gaza, including Operation Guardian of the Walls in May 2021 and Operation Shield and Arrow in May 2023, alongside frequent smaller-scale exchanges. Observers monitor these events for escalation risks, humanitarian consequences, and effects on Israeli domestic politics and international relations. The specificity of the market's resolution criteria, focusing on aerial strikes on a single day, provides a measurable indicator of ongoing tensions.
Israeli military actions in Gaza have occurred regularly since Israel's withdrawal from the territory in 2005. The conflict intensified after Hamas won Palestinian legislative elections in 2006 and took full control of Gaza in 2007. Israel then imposed a land, air, and sea blockade. Major Israeli operations include Operation Cast Lead from December 2008 to January 2009, which resulted in over 1,400 Palestinian and 13 Israeli deaths. Operation Pillar of Defense in November 2012 involved eight days of airstrikes. Operation Protective Edge in the summer of 2014 was the deadliest, with over 2,200 Palestinians and 73 Israelis killed. These operations typically follow periods of escalated rocket fire from Gaza into Israeli civilian areas. Between major conflicts, smaller-scale exchanges are common. For example, in August 2022, Israel launched a three-day operation against Islamic Jihad after threats from the group. This pattern of action and retaliation creates a volatile status quo where any single day could see military strikes.
Israeli military actions in Gaza have immediate human consequences. Airstrikes can cause civilian casualties and destroy homes, schools, and infrastructure in one of the world's most densely populated areas. The Gaza Strip, home to approximately 2.1 million people, has an economy crippled by blockade and repeated conflicts, with unemployment near 45%. These strikes also risk regional escalation, potentially drawing in other actors like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Iranian-backed groups. Politically, Israeli actions affect its relationships with Arab states that normalized ties through the Abraham Accords and with European allies concerned about international law. Domestically, the Israeli government faces pressure from right-wing coalition partners to respond forcefully to threats, while also managing the risk of Israeli casualties from counter-attacks. For Hamas and other Palestinian factions, Israeli strikes can bolster or undermine their legitimacy, depending on their ability to portray resistance and secure concessions.
As of early 2024, the situation remains tense following the major war that began after Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. That conflict involved intense Israeli airstrikes on Gaza. While a temporary ceasefire and hostage exchange occurred in November 2023, sporadic fighting continues. Israeli forces maintain operations against Hamas remnants and other militant groups. The risk of renewed larger-scale airstrikes persists, particularly if rocket fire from Gaza resumes at high levels or if negotiations over hostages and a permanent ceasefire break down. International focus is on humanitarian aid delivery and preventing a wider regional conflict.
The Gaza Strip is a Palestinian territory on the Mediterranean coast, bordered by Israel and Egypt. It is approximately 365 square kilometers and is home to around 2.1 million Palestinians. Israel maintains control over its airspace, coastline, and most land borders.
Israel states it conducts airstrikes in response to rocket or mortar attacks launched from Gaza into Israeli territory, or to preempt imminent attacks. The stated goals are to degrade the military capabilities of Hamas and other armed groups and to deter future aggression.
Hamas is a Palestinian Islamist political and military organization that has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is designated as a terrorist group by Israel, the United States, the European Union, and others. Its military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, possesses rockets and tunnels.
The Iron Dome is an Israeli mobile air defense system designed to intercept short-range rockets and artillery shells. It became operational in 2011 and is credited with intercepting thousands of projectiles fired from Gaza, reducing Israeli casualties and influencing military decision-making.
Casualty figures in Gaza are primarily reported by the Gaza Ministry of Health, which is run by Hamas. These numbers are generally considered reliable by international organizations like the UN, though they do not typically distinguish between combatant and civilian deaths in initial reports.
Israel, with Egyptian cooperation, imposes a land, air, and sea blockade on the Gaza Strip. Instituted after Hamas took control in 2007, it restricts the movement of people and goods. Israel says the blockade is necessary for security; critics call it collective punishment.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
12 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 89% |
| Poly | 53% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 49% |
| Poly | 49% |
| Poly | 48% |
| Poly | 42% |
| Poly | 41% |
| Poly | 40% |
| Poly | 40% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 1% |
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