Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
Total Volume
$43.56K
Events
1
Markets
1
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $43.56K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $43.56K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 14% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
14%
Top Probability
$43.56K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give about a 1 in 7 chance that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will issue its most severe “Level 4: Avoid All Travel” warning for any disease by the end of 2026. This means traders collectively see it as unlikely, but not impossible. A Level 4 notice is the CDC’s highest alert, reserved for situations where travel poses an extreme health risk, often due to widespread disease outbreaks that could overwhelm local medical systems or involve novel, dangerous pathogens.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The low probability stems from a few factors. First, the CDC uses this top tier sparingly. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Level 4 warnings were common, but for a known, endemic disease to trigger one requires a severe and unexpected turn. Second, the long timeframe until December 2026 allows for potential new pathogens to emerge, which keeps the probability from being zero. However, the baseline expectation is that the world will not face a pandemic-scale threat in the next two years severe enough to warrant a blanket “avoid all travel” order for a country or region. The market is essentially betting that the current post-pandemic period will remain relatively stable in terms of explosive, novel outbreaks.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
There is no single scheduled event for this prediction. Instead, traders will watch for unexpected viral outbreaks reported by global health bodies like the World Health Organization. A key signal would be the WHO declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for a new or re-emerging disease with high fatality rates and evidence of efficient human transmission. Seasonal patterns also matter; surges of diseases like avian influenza or a new coronavirus variant during fall or winter could shift the odds.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Prediction markets have a mixed record on rare, high-impact events like pandemics. They are often good at aggregating known information about institutional behavior, like the CDC’s cautious use of top-tier warnings. However, they can be slow to price in truly novel, “black swan” biological threats that appear with little warning. The 14% probability likely reflects the known historical rarity of Level 4 notices outside of extreme circumstances, but it may not fully capture the inherent uncertainty of global health over a multi-year period.
Current Market Outlook
The Polymarket contract "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" is trading at 14¢, indicating a 14% probability. This price suggests the market views the event as unlikely within the timeframe, which extends to December 31, 2026. With only $44,000 in total volume, liquidity is thin. This low volume can amplify price swings and means the current odds may not reflect a deep consensus.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The low probability is anchored in the CDC's historical use of Level 4 warnings. These are reserved for extreme scenarios involving widespread, uncontrolled disease transmission with severe health risks and breakdowns in healthcare infrastructure. The last Level 4 notices were issued during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Since then, the CDC has not elevated any threat to Level 4, even for significant outbreaks like the global mpox surge in 2022 or regional dengue fever epidemics. The market is pricing in a continuation of this post-pandemic baseline, where major threats are managed with lower-level advisories.
A second factor is the extended timeframe. A 14% chance over nearly two years is not trivial. It acknowledges the persistent threat of novel pathogens or a sudden, severe turn in an existing epidemic. The ongoing spread of H5N1 avian flu in animal populations is a known wild card that could trigger a reassessment if human-to-human transmission is confirmed.
What Could Change These Odds
The primary catalyst for a dramatic price increase would be the emergence of a novel pathogen with high mortality and clear evidence of efficient human transmission. A mutation in the H5N1 virus that facilitates sustained human spread would almost certainly force the CDC's hand. Similarly, a large-scale outbreak of a disease like Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever or a new SARS-like virus in a region with heavy travel links could prompt a Level 4 designation.
Conversely, the odds could fall further if the next 12-18 months pass without a major global health scare. Each quarter without a significant epidemic reinforces the market's view that the post-COVID period is one of heightened surveillance and containment, reducing the need for the most severe travel warnings. Monitoring CDC updates for any Level 3 ("Reconsider Travel") advisories is key, as an escalation from Level 3 to Level 4 would be a clear signal.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.