Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?

Total Volume

$400.00

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Markets

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Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?

Vol

$400.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $400.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $400.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029?	Kalshi	43%
Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	28%
Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2028?	Kalshi	12%
Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	8%
Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

Top Probability

$400.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jul 2029 If Mark Carney leaves, or announces he will leave, as Prime Minister of Canada before X 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. X statement that Mark Carney will not lead the Liberal Party into the next general election does not count unless it also says he will leave office before that election, for example once a new Liberal leader is chosen. I

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jul 2029

If Mark Carney leaves, or announces he will leave, as Prime Minister of Canada before X 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. X statement that Mark Carney will not lead the Liberal Party into the next general election does not count unless it also says he will leave office before that election, for example once a new Liberal leader is chosen. I

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.

A statement that "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $400
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2029): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?

Volume$400.00

Markets5

5 of 5

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.0¢No 57.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029?

If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that

KALSHI

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2029?

If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that

KALSHI

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2028?

If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that

KALSHI

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2028?

If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that

KALSHI

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2027?

If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that

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19¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/7Lsy3-" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?"></iframe>

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Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?

Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?

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Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029?

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Events (1)

Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?

Markets (5)

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2027?

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Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Mark Carney announce their departure as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2027?

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