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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

CA-04 Primary Winners

Name: CA-04 Primary Winners
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$22.88K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

CA-04 Primary Winners

Vol

$22.88K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $22.88K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $22.88K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Mike Thompson advance from the CA-04 primary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mike Thompson advance from the CA-04 primary election?	Poly	99%
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election?	Poly	91%
Will Heath Fulkerson advance from the CA-04 primary election?	Poly	18%
Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election?	Poly	10%
Will Trevor Merrell advance from the CA-04 primary election?	Poly	10%
Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election?	Poly	7%
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election?	Poly	6%
Will Laurie MacKenzie advance from the CA-04 primary election?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$22.88K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CA-04 Primary Winners
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of of

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $22.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $56.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.40)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $744
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Laurie MacKenzie advance from the CA-04 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $710
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $757
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Mike Thompson advance from the CA-04 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Heath Fulkerson advance from the CA-04 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $396
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.4% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trevor Merrell advance from the CA-04 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics