Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Name: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.90M

Events

Markets

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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.90M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.90M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Poly	53%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$2.90M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (166 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.90M
* **Total Liquidity:** $117.0K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 24.76)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.90M
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

165d 18h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

53¢

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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)