Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics
Number of TSA Passengers March 1?
Total Volume
$24.38K
Events
1
Markets
6
Number of TSA Passengers March 1?
Vol
$24.38K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
6
$24.38K
1
6
$24.38K
1
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 1, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not a
Prediction markets currently estimate there is roughly a 2 in 3 chance that more than 17.5 million passengers will pass through TSA checkpoints from March 2 through March 8, 2026. This is a specific forecast about future travel volume. The 64% probability suggests traders see it as the more likely outcome, but they are not completely certain. For comparison, this weekly total would represent an average of about 2.5 million daily passengers.
Two main factors are likely shaping this prediction. First, the timing. Early March is typically a quieter period between the winter holiday rush and the spring break travel surge. A forecast of 17.5 million passengers for that week would be consistent with recent post-pandemic recovery trends, but not an extreme peak.
Second, the prediction is anchored to observable data. The TSA publicly reports daily passenger numbers, providing a clear historical baseline. Traders can compare the forecast to passenger counts from the same week in 2024 and 2025. The current odds suggest the collective expectation is for steady, normalized travel demand, continuing the recovery pattern seen since 2022 without a major new spike or drop.
The most direct signal will come from TSA’s own daily reports during the first week of March 2026. If early daily numbers for March 2nd and 3rd come in significantly above or below 2.5 million, the market probability could shift rapidly.
Broader factors that could influence travel include any major changes in airline capacity planning for early 2026 or unexpected economic news that affects consumer spending on travel. However, for a one-week snapshot just days away, the daily TSA data releases themselves will be the primary driver of any last-minute changes in the forecast.
For short-term forecasts based on official government statistics, prediction markets have a reasonable track record. The outcome is objective, timely, and free from subjective interpretation. The main limitation here is the niche size of this market. With only about $31,000 wagered across related questions, the forecast may be more sensitive to small trades than a highly liquid market. It reflects a specialized consensus rather than a broad one, but it is still a concrete, money-backed estimate of a near-term future statistic.
Prediction markets on Polymarket currently assign a 64% probability that total TSA passenger throughput for the week of March 2-8, 2026, will exceed 17.5 million. This price indicates the market views a weekly total above that threshold as more likely than not, but with significant uncertainty. The opposing "No" share trades at 36%. With only $31,000 in total volume spread across six related markets, liquidity is thin. This suggests the consensus is tentative and could shift with new data or trading activity.
The 64% probability leans on established seasonal travel patterns. Early March typically falls between the post-holiday lull and the spring break surge, but it often shows a steady increase in passenger volumes. The comparable week in 2025 saw approximately 17.2 million passengers, based on TSA data. The market's pricing above that historical figure likely accounts for a baseline annual growth rate in air travel of 2-3%, which would naturally push 2026's volume slightly higher. The probability is not higher because this period lacks a major unifying holiday, making weekly totals sensitive to business travel fluctuations and regional school calendars.
The primary catalyst for price movement will be the release of daily TSA throughput data starting March 2. A strong first day, particularly if it surpasses 2.6 million passengers, would likely boost the "Yes" probability. Conversely, a weak start under 2.4 million could quickly invert the odds. Weather is a critical wildcard; significant winter storms or airport disruptions in early March could suppress the weekly total. The market's thin liquidity means even modest trades based on early-week data could cause sharp price swings. The consensus will solidify, or reverse, as each day's passenger numbers are reported.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the total number of passengers screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) on a specific future date, March 1, 2026. The TSA, a component of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, screens all commercial airline passengers at U.S. airports. The agency publishes daily throughput figures on its public website, providing a real-time barometer of air travel volume. This specific date is significant as it falls on a Sunday, which typically sees different travel patterns than weekdays, and it sits within the late winter travel period, after the President's Day holiday surge and before the spring break rush. The resolution of this market depends on the official TSA data release for that date, with provisions for any data revisions made to dates from December 1, 2025 onward before the full data range is published. Interest in this metric extends beyond aviation enthusiasts to economists, investors, and policymakers. The daily passenger count is a high-frequency economic indicator, offering immediate insight into consumer confidence, discretionary spending, and the health of the travel and hospitality sectors. For the TSA itself, these numbers drive staffing models, budget justifications, and operational planning. Market participants use this data to gauge broader economic trends, as air travel demand is sensitive to factors like fuel prices, macroeconomic conditions, and public health concerns.
The TSA was created by the Aviation and Transportation Security Act, signed into law by President George W. Bush on November 19, 2001, in response to the September 11 attacks. The agency assumed responsibility for passenger screening from private contractors. Daily passenger reporting began as an internal metric but evolved into a public-facing dataset, especially after the TSA launched its official website and social media presence. A major historical benchmark was set on the Sunday after Thanksgiving in 2019, when TSA screened over 2.9 million passengers, setting a single-day record. The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented collapse in air travel. On April 14, 2020, TSA screened only 87,534 passengers nationwide, a 96% drop from 2019 levels. The recovery has been gradual and uneven. 2023 marked a return to pre-pandemic volume levels, with the agency screening over 858 million passengers for the year, exceeding the 2019 total of 824 million. Historically, March 1 has seen variable traffic. In 2024, a Friday, TSA screened 2.76 million passengers. In 2023, a Wednesday, the figure was 2.38 million. The date's position relative to holidays and school schedules creates annual fluctuations that analysts track closely.
The TSA passenger count is a critical pulse check for the U.S. economy. Air travel demand is highly correlated with business investment, consumer sentiment, and tourism expenditure. A sustained increase in throughput suggests economic expansion and consumer willingness to spend on non-essential services. Conversely, a sudden drop can signal economic anxiety or reaction to external shocks. For the aviation ecosystem, these numbers determine revenue for airlines, airports, and concessionaires. They influence hiring decisions for pilots, flight attendants, and ground staff. Airport authorities use this data to plan capital projects like terminal expansions. Politically, high travel volumes can be cited as evidence of a strong economy, while disruptions or declines become fodder for congressional hearings and policy debates. The data also has public health implications, as it monitors population movement during disease outbreaks. For local economies reliant on tourism, the flow of air passengers is directly tied to hotel occupancy, restaurant sales, and tax revenue.
As of late 2024, U.S. air travel demand remains robust, consistently meeting or exceeding 2019 levels on most days. The TSA continues to publish daily throughput figures on its website and via social media with a one-day lag. Airlines have largely restored their domestic and international flight networks, though some long-haul international routes remain below pre-pandemic capacity. The agency is focused on recruiting and retaining screeners to manage sustained high volumes and is expanding technologies like credential authentication and computed tomography scanners, which can slightly alter processing times and thus potential throughput. Economic forecasts for 2025 suggest moderate growth, which typically supports steady air travel demand, setting a context for the 2026 date in question.
The TSA publishes daily passenger throughput data on its official website under a dedicated 'Security Checkpoint Wait Times' dashboard. The agency also posts the previous day's total each morning on its Twitter/X account (@TSA). The data is typically released by 9:00 AM Eastern Time.
The reported number represents the total passengers screened at TSA checkpoints across all U.S. airports during a single calendar day, from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM local time at each airport. It includes both domestic and international departing passengers.
The data is considered highly accurate as it is sourced directly from operational systems at every airport checkpoint. The TSA notes that figures are preliminary upon initial release and may be subject to minor revisions, typically within a few days, as data validation is completed.
No. A passenger is counted only once per day, at the first TSA checkpoint they pass through. A traveler making a connection later the same day without exiting secure airside areas is not screened again and is not counted a second time.
The primary drivers are the day of the week (Mondays and Thursdays are typically busiest for business travel, Sundays for leisure), proximity to major holidays, school vacation schedules, and significant weather events that cause widespread flight cancellations. Macroeconomic news and fuel prices can also influence booking patterns.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
6 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 81% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 7% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 1% |
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