GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Sergipe

Name: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Sergipe
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$15.45K

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Markets

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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Sergipe

Vol

$15.45K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $15.45K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.45K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	97%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	2%
Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	1%
Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	0%
Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	0%
Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	0%
Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	0%
Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	0%
Will Zema win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	0%
Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	0%
Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	0%
Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$15.45K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Sergipe
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $115.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $522
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $506
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $695
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $528
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $522
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $506
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $528
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $534
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $469
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $514
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Zema win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $447
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics