Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:27 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

Name: How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
End: 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$55.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

Vol

$55.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $55.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $55.00

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	Poly	26%
Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	Poly	18%
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	Poly	16%
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	Poly	15%
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	Poly	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

26%

Top Probability

$55.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 26, 2026 (13 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ship"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $55
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $55
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics