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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Name: Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
End: 2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.37K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Vol

$6.37K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.37K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.37K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Poly	94%
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Poly	2%
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Poly	2%
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Poly	2%
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Poly	2%
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Poly	1%
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Poly	1%
Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$6.37K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 1, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and swo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $35.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.18)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $137
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $638
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $648
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $648
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $648
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 1, 2026): Vol $657
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics