Market snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform4 EventsPolitics

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Reported volume

PM $292.0K · K 11.8K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Vol

PM $292.0K · K 11.8K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, Giorgia Meloni is the highest-priced outcome on both platforms, at 50% on Polymarket and 48.5% on Kalshi.

Polymarket

Giorgia Meloni50%
Giuseppe Conte24.5%
Elly Schlein17.5%
Silvia Salis3.5%
Roberto Vannacci3.1%

Kalshi

Giorgia Meloni48.5%
Elly Schlein20%
Giuseppe Conte15%
Roberto Vannacci6%
Silvia Salis3.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

18 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Gaetano Manfredi become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

No data available

Include related or unreviewed contracts

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 8 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-07-08T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 6 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z, 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $292.0K · K 11.8K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Next Prime Minister of Italy?
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $292.0K · K 11.8K contracts
Coverage: 26 of 26 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jul 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMELONIOUT-26OCT-27JUL01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmeloniout-26oct
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jul 8, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 70 contracts
Outcome Yes: 31.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 68.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If Giorgia Meloni leaves (or announces she will leave) as Prime Minister of Italy before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.

An announcement that merely acknowledges the scheduled end of Giorgia Meloni's term, such as a statement that she will serve until the end of the legislature, does not count. A formal resignation after which she stays on for current affairs and is reappointed, such as after a general election or to bring about an early election, also does not count.

If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.

For "leave," cessation of h

Contract: Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2317467; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/meloni-out-as-prime-minister-of-italy-by-december-31
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $36.4K
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Contract: Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2028?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXMELONIOUT-26OCT-28JAN01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmeloniout-26oct
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 8, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 51.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 49.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If Giorgia Meloni leaves (or announces she will leave) as Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.

An announcement that merely acknowledges the scheduled end of Giorgia Meloni's term, such as a statement that she will serve until the end of the legislature, does not count. A formal resignation after which she stays on for current affairs and is reappointed, such as after a general election or to bring about an early election, also does not count.

If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.

For "leave," cessation of h

Contract: Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045083; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-giorgia-meloni-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $15.3K
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-GMEL; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxitalypm-27dec22
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 22, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 48.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 51.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Giorgia Meloni becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).

If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a person is formally appointed and invested as Prime Minister.

Contract: Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-ESCH; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxitalypm-27dec22
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 22, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 996.26 contracts
Outcome Yes: 20.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 80.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Elly Schlein becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).

If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a person is formally appointed and invested as Prime Minister.

Contract: Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045084; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-elly-schlein-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $8.1K
Outcome Yes: 17.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 82.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-GCON; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxitalypm-27dec22
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 22, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 15.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 85.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Giuseppe Conte becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).

If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a person is formally appointed and invested as Prime Minister.

Contract: Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045085; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-giuseppe-conte-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $8.4K
Outcome Yes: 24.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 75.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Antonio Tajani become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-ATAN; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxitalypm-27dec22
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 22, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 688 contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Antonio Tajani becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).

If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a person is formally appointed and invested as Prime Minister.

Contract: Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045086; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-antonio-tajani-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.3K
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-SSAL; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxitalypm-27dec22
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 22, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 893 contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Silvia Salis becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).

If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a person is formally appointed and invested as Prime Minister.

Contract: Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045090; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-silvia-salis-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $11.6K
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-RVAN; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxitalypm-27dec22
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 22, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 600 contracts
Outcome Yes: 6.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Roberto Vannacci becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).

If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a person is formally appointed and invested as Prime Minister.

Contract: Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045091; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-roberto-vannacci-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $41.0K
Outcome Yes: 3.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045087; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-matteo-salvini-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $5.8K
Outcome Yes: 0.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.3%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Guido Crosetto be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045088; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-guido-crosetto-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.6K
Outcome Yes: 0.2%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045089; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-mario-draghi-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $4.3K
Outcome Yes: 0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045092; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-matteo-renzi-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.3K
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Angelo Bonelli, be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045093; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-angelo-bonelli-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.2K
Outcome Yes: 0.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Carlo Calenda be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2045094; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-carlo-calenda-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-italy
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.2K
Outcome Yes: 0.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Roberto Gualtieri become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-RGUA; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxitalypm-27dec22
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 22, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Roberto Gualtieri becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).

If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a person is formally appointed and invested as Prime Minister.

Contract: Will Paolo Gentiloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-PGEN; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxitalypm-27dec22
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 22, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 698 contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Paolo Gentiloni becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).

If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a person is formally appointed and invested as Prime Minister.

Contract: Will Gaetano Manfredi become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-GMAN; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxitalypm-27dec22
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 22, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 692 contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Gaetano Manfredi becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).

If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a person is formally appointed and invested as Prime Minister.

Contract: Will Ernesto Maria Ruffini become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-ERUF; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxitalypm-27dec22
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 22, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 691 contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ernesto Maria Ruffini becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).

If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a person is formally appointed and invested as Prime Minister.

Contract: Will Antonio Decaro become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-ADEC; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxitalypm-27dec22
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 22, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 653 contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Antonio Decaro becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).

If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a person is formally appointed and invested as Prime Minister.

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-2317467 / kalshi-KXMELONIOUT-26OCT-27JUL01: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jul 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-07-08T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 9, 2026, 12:49 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-07-08T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-2045085 / kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-GCON: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?"; listed deadline 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?"; listed deadline 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 10, 2026, 1:19 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 6 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z, 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-2045091 / kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-RVAN: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?"; listed deadline 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?"; listed deadline 2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 10, 2026, 1:19 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 6 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z, 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-2045084 / kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-ESCH: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?"; listed deadline 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?"; listed deadline 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 10, 2026, 1:19 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 6 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z, 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-2045086 / kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-ATAN: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Antonio Tajani become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?"; listed deadline 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?"; listed deadline 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 10, 2026, 1:19 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 6 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z, 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-2045083 / kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-GMEL: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?"; listed deadline 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?"; listed deadline 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 10, 2026, 1:19 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 6 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z, 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-2045083 / kalshi-KXMELONIOUT-26OCT-28JAN01: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2028?"; listed deadline 2028-01-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?"; listed deadline 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 9, 2026, 12:49 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-2045090 / kalshi-KXITALYPM-27DEC22-SSAL: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?"; listed deadline 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy?"; listed deadline 2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 10, 2026, 1:19 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 6 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z, 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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KALSHIPolitics

Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?

Before Jan 2028 If Giorgia Meloni leaves, or announces she will leave, as Prime Minister of Italy before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An announcement that merely acknowledges the scheduled end of Giorgia Meloni's term, such as a statement that she will serve until the end of the legislature, does not count. X formal resignation after which she stays on for current affairs and is reappointed, such as after a general election or to bring about an early election, also does not count. If the person leaves the role due to death, i.e., if the person dies while holding the role, all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term. This market will close and expire early if the specific individual leaves the role as defined in the payout criteria.

Volume$70.00

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Volume$109.98K

Markets12

18 of 18

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Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2028?

kalshi

Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2028?

Yes: 51.0¢
No: 49.0¢

polymarket

Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Yes: 50.0¢
No: 50.0¢

kalshi

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Yes: 48.5¢
No: 51.5¢

Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?"; listed deadline 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?"; listed deadline 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 10 Nov 2026 13:19:48 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Yes: 15.0¢
No: 85.0¢

polymarket

Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Yes: 24.5¢
No: 75.5¢

Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?"; listed deadline 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?"; listed deadline 2029-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 10 Nov 2026 13:19:48 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Yes: 20.0¢
No: 80.0¢

polymarket

Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Yes: 17.5¢
No: 82.5¢

Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jul 1, 2027?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jul 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-07-08T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:49:49 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-07-08T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jul 1, 2027?

Yes: 31.5¢
No: 68.5¢

polymarket

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?

Yes: 3.5¢
No: 96.5¢

Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?"; listed deadline 2028-12-22T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?"; listed deadline 2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 10 Nov 2026 13:19:48 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Yes: 6.0¢
No: 94.0¢

polymarket

Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Yes: 3.1¢
No: 96.9¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

PM $780.7K · K 11.42M contracts

Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

Kalshi: Will Yair Lapid be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 36.5%Rules differK Yes 37%

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?

Kalshi: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Related contracts

PM Yes 28.5%Rules differK Yes 21%

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?

Kalshi: Will Avigdor Lieberman be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 21.5%Rules differK Yes 18.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

73 saved comparisonsNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC

KalshiPolitics

Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?

Kalshi: Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis become Prime Minister of Greece following the next Greek general election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 69%Rules differK Yes 71.5%

Will Alexis Tsipras be the next Prime Minister of Greece?

Kalshi: Will Alexis Tsipras become Prime Minister of Greece following the next Greek general election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 8.3%Rules differK Yes 8.5%

Will Maria Karystianou be the next Prime Minister of Greece?

Kalshi: Will Maria Karystianou become Prime Minister of Greece following the next Greek general election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 2.9%Rules differK Yes 4%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

6 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jul 26, 2027 UTC

PolymarketPolitics

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

PM $3.65M

Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes 81.5%

Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes 13.7%

Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes 1.1%

+17 moreNext deadline Nov 30, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiWorld

Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

PM $37.8K · K 842.04 contracts

Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

Kalshi: Will Anthony Albanese become Prime Minister of Australia following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives?

Related contracts

PM Yes 39.5%Rules differK Yes 36%

Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

Kalshi: Will Pauline Hanson become Prime Minister of Australia following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives?

Related contracts

PM Yes 21%Rules differK Yes 22%

Will Angus Taylor be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

Kalshi: Will Angus Taylor become Prime Minister of Australia following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives?

Related contracts

PM Yes 15%Rules differK Yes 17%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

4 saved comparisonsNext deadline Sep 24, 2028 UTC

No related news found

Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

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Jan 01, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

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Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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Will Gaetano Manfredi become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

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Events (4)

Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Markets (7)

Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

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Will Gaetano Manfredi become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

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Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?

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