GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

Name: How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.64M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

Vol

$1.64M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.64M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.64M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Poly	61%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Poly	28%
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?	Poly	7%
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

61%

Top Probability

$1.64M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the emba"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $875.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $73.7K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 11.88)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $318.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $64.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $29.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $28.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $50.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $102.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $152.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $130.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld