This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting the number of distinct countries the United States will conduct military strikes on during the 2026 calendar year. Specifically, it counts any drone, missile, or air strike initiated by the U.S. that hits the sovereign soil of another nation. The resolution criteria are precise, excluding strikes on U.S. territory and counting strikes on diplomatic facilities toward the host country. This market serves as a quantitative proxy for assessing the global footprint and intensity of U.S. military engagement, reflecting geopolitical tensions, counterterrorism policies, and the Biden administration's stated foreign policy doctrine. Interest in this topic stems from its direct connection to international stability, the risk of broader conflict escalation, and the financial and human costs of military action. Analysts, policymakers, and investors monitor such metrics to gauge shifts in U.S. strategic posture, especially in volatile regions like the Middle East, Africa, and increasingly the Indo-Pacific. The outcome for 2026 will be influenced by ongoing conflicts, emergent threats, and the political landscape leading into the 2024 U.S. presidential election and its subsequent foreign policy implementation.

Historical Context

The United States has conducted military strikes in foreign countries for decades, but the post-9/11 era, particularly under the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), marked a significant expansion. This led to prolonged campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. The development and proliferation of armed drones, notably the MQ-9 Reaper, during the Obama administration enabled a more frequent and geographically dispersed model of targeted strikes, often conducted by the CIA and Joint Special Operations Command. The Obama administration conducted strikes in at least seven countries, including Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya. The Trump administration continued and in some cases intensified these campaigns, notably in Somalia and by expanding strikes in Yemen. It also conducted singular high-profile strikes, such as the January 2020 drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Iraq. The Biden administration entered office pledging to end "forever wars" but has maintained a consistent tempo of counterterrorism strikes, primarily focused on ISIS and Al Qaeda affiliates. This historical pattern establishes a baseline of 3-5 countries struck annually in recent years, setting a precedent for the 2026 forecast.

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