Name: Measles cases in U.S. by January 31?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Measles cases in U.S. by January 31? | PredictPedia

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6 markets tracked

Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	Poly	99%
Will there be at least 200 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	Poly	98%
Will there be at least 300 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	Poly	84%
Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	Poly	70%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	Poly	53%
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?-8_i8	Poly	11%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Measles cases in U.S. by January 31?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (15 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counte

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $30.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $58.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.51)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be at least 300 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $158
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $940
  DATA: [Yes: 70.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?-8_i8
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $113
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $13.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be at least 200 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $14.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

14d 12h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

69¢

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Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

Measles cases in U.S. by January 31?

Markets (6)

Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 200 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 200 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 300 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 300 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

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Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Measles cases in U.S. by January 31?

Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 200 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 200 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 300 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 300 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

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