$1.23M
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$1.23M
2
13
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before 2025 If GDP growth in 2025 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets are currently pricing in moderate confidence that U.S. GDP growth for 2025 will fall within a specific, modest range. The leading contract, "GDP growth in 2025? (2.1% to 2.5%)," trades at 77% on Kalshi. This probability indicates the market views this outcome as the most likely scenario, though not a near-certainty. A secondary contract for growth between 1.6% and 2.0% holds a 20% probability, making the 2.1-2.5% band the clear consensus. The high liquidity, with over $1.2 million in volume across 13 related markets, underscores significant trader interest and confidence in these price levels.
The market's pricing reflects a view of a slowing but resilient U.S. economy. First, it aligns with the Federal Reserve's projected longer-run growth rate of around 1.8% and recent Blue Chip economist consensus forecasts clustering near 2.0-2.5% for 2025. This suggests markets see the economy returning to its potential growth rate after the post-pandemic volatility. Second, current economic data supports this soft-landing narrative. Cooling but stable consumer spending, coupled with a gradual easing of inflation without a sharp rise in unemployment, provides a foundation for steady, non-recessionary growth. The market is effectively betting against both a overheating boom and a contraction.
The primary risk to the current consensus is a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. If incoming inflation data surprises to the upside, forcing the Fed to maintain restrictive rates for longer, it could dampen investment and consumer demand, pushing odds toward the lower 1.6-2.0% growth bracket. Conversely, faster-than-expected disinflation allowing for aggressive rate cuts could stimulate activity and shift probability toward the 2.6-3.0% range. Key upcoming data releases, including monthly CPI and employment reports, along with the Fed's December and early 2025 meetings, will be critical near-term catalysts that could rapidly reprice these markets before the January 2026 resolution.
This event is active on both Kalshi and Polymarket, revealing a notable 7.2 percentage point spread. The leading "2.1-2.5%" contract trades at 77% on Kalshi but only approximately 70% on Polymarket. This discrepancy may be driven by platform-specific user bases with differing economic outlooks or varying liquidity conditions. While this creates a theoretical arbitrage opportunity, the resolution date is 16 days away, allowing time for prices to converge. The persistent spread suggests differing risk assessments or capital controls between platforms, but Kalshi's higher price generally indicates greater confidence in that platform for this specific economic outcome.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2025 refers to the projected annual percentage increase in the total monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country's borders during that calendar year. This economic indicator serves as the primary measure of a nation's economic health and expansion. For prediction markets, the focus is on forecasting whether the actual GDP growth rate will meet, exceed, or fall below specific thresholds set by market creators, often based on projections from institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, or national economic agencies. The outcome depends on complex interactions between monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, consumer spending, business investment, international trade, and geopolitical stability. Recent interest in 2025 projections has intensified due to post-pandemic economic normalization, persistent inflationary pressures, and significant policy shifts in major economies. Analysts are particularly focused on how central banks will navigate the transition from aggressive interest rate hikes to potential easing cycles, and how governments will manage fiscal deficits while attempting to spur growth. The 2025 forecast also serves as a key benchmark for investors, corporations, and policymakers making long-term strategic decisions.
Historical GDP growth provides essential context for evaluating 2025 projections. The global economy experienced an average annual growth of approximately 3.5 percent in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (2010-2019), according to World Bank data. This period was characterized by a long, but relatively slow, recovery from the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, which saw world GDP contract by 0.1 percent in 2009. The pandemic then caused the deepest peacetime recession since the Great Depression, with global GDP shrinking by 3.1 percent in 2020. The subsequent rebound was sharp, with growth reaching 6.0 percent in 2021, fueled by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. However, growth slowed to 3.5 percent in 2022 and an estimated 3.0 percent in 2023 as stimulus faded and central banks aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation, which peaked at multi-decade highs in many countries. The pre-pandemic decade also saw a notable decline in what economists term 'potential growth,' the rate an economy can sustain without generating inflation. This slowdown was attributed to aging populations in advanced economies, slowing productivity gains, and weaker investment. Therefore, 2025 forecasts must account for whether the economy is reverting to this lower pre-pandemic trend or if new factors, like the energy transition and AI adoption, might alter the long-term trajectory.
The pace of GDP growth in 2025 has profound implications for global welfare. Economically, it determines job creation, wage growth, and corporate profitability. Slower growth can lead to higher unemployment and increased pressure on public finances, limiting governments' ability to fund social programs, infrastructure, and climate initiatives. For financial markets, growth expectations are a primary driver of asset prices, influencing everything from stock valuations to currency exchange rates and commodity prices. Politically, economic performance is often the most significant factor in electoral outcomes. Governments facing elections in or around 2025, including potential changes in the United States and other major democracies, will be judged heavily on the perceived strength of the economy. Socially, the growth rate affects inequality trends, poverty reduction, and the ability to finance healthcare and education systems. Furthermore, the quality of growth matters. Growth driven by sustainable investment and broad-based productivity has different long-term consequences than growth fueled by debt-financed consumption or volatile commodity exports. Ultimately, the 2025 growth figure will be a key metric in assessing the world's recovery from recent shocks and its capacity to meet future challenges.
As of early 2024, consensus forecasts for 2025 global GDP growth cluster around 3 percent, indicating expectations for a soft landing rather than a recession. The International Monetary Fund's January 2024 update projected 2025 growth at 3.1 percent, slightly below its 2024 forecast of 3.2 percent. Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, have signaled that the peak of the interest rate hiking cycle has likely been reached, but have been cautious about the timing of rate cuts. The key uncertainty is the lagged impact of past monetary tightening, which continues to work its way through the economy. Recent data shows resilience in consumer spending in the United States, but weakness in manufacturing and business investment in Europe and China. Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and upcoming elections in major economies, add layers of unpredictability to the outlook.
As of early 2024, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office forecasts real GDP growth of 2.2 percent for 2025. Private sector forecasters, like those surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, show a median projection in a similar range, between 1.8 and 2.4 percent, reflecting expectations for a return to trend growth after the post-pandemic volatility.
Stronger-than-expected GDP growth typically boosts corporate revenues and profits, which supports higher stock prices. However, if growth is too strong, it can lead to fears of reignited inflation, prompting central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer, which can depress stock valuations. The market's reaction depends on whether growth is seen as sustainable or inflationary.
The primary risks include a slower-than-expected decline in inflation, forcing central banks to maintain restrictive policies. Geopolitical shocks that disrupt energy or trade flows, a deeper-than-anticipated downturn in China's property sector, and a potential resurgence of financial stress, especially in highly indebted emerging markets, also pose significant threats to the growth outlook.
Forecasts made two years ahead have a significant margin of error, often plus or minus one to two percentage points for large economies. Accuracy is hampered by unforeseen events like pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, or financial crises. Forecasts are more reliable for assessing the direction and general trend of the economy than pinpointing an exact growth rate.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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Before 2025 If GDP growth in 2025 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for
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