$76.63K
1
120
$76.63K
1
120
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2026 Sony Open in Hawaii If X makes the cut in the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.
Prediction markets currently assign a 92% probability that professional golfer Ben Griffin will make the cut at the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii. This price, trading at 92 cents on Kalshi, indicates an extremely high level of confidence. In plain terms, the market views Griffin's advancement to the weekend rounds as nearly certain, with only an 8% implied chance of an early exit.
Two primary factors justify this high probability. First, Ben Griffin has established strong form at Waialae Country Club, the host course for the Sony Open. He finished tied for 12th in the 2024 edition and tied for 3rd in 2023, demonstrating a proven affinity for the course's specific demands, which favor accurate drivers and strong putters. Second, Griffin's consistent PGA Tour performance profile makes him a reliable cut-maker. For the 2024 season, he made the cut in over 75% of his starts, a baseline that suggests a very high floor for a standard Tour event like the Sony Open.
While the current odds reflect a stable outlook, two scenarios could cause significant movement before the 2026 tournament. A sustained drop in Griffin's world ranking or a pronounced slump in form during the latter part of 2025 would introduce doubt, potentially lowering his probability. Conversely, if Griffin were to win his first PGA Tour event before 2026, his status as a favorite would solidify further, though with a price already at 92%, upward movement is limited. The most impactful near-term catalyst will be his performance in the preceding fall 2025 events, which will provide the final form guide before the Sony Open.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The prediction market topic 'Sony Open in Hawaii: To Make the Cut' focuses on whether a specific professional golfer, designated as 'X' in the market contract, will successfully advance past the 36-hole cut at the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii. This PGA Tour event, held annually at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, features a standard cut after the second round, where approximately the top 65 players and ties continue to compete in the final two rounds. The market resolves to 'Yes' if player X is among those who make the cut, and it will close early if the tournament winner is declared before the cut is officially determined, a rare but possible scenario in the event of a tournament cancellation or other extraordinary circumstances. Interest in this market stems from golf bettors, fantasy sports participants, and prediction market traders who analyze player form, course history, and field strength to assess the probability of a golfer surviving the cut. The Sony Open, typically held in January, is the first full-field event of the PGA Tour's calendar year, making player performance and fitness after the offseason a key variable. The specific focus on 'making the cut' rather than winning the tournament creates a distinct, binary outcome that appeals to those modeling mid-tier performance probabilities in a volatile sport.
The tournament now known as the Sony Open in Hawaii originated in 1965 as the Hawaiian Open, played at the Waialae Country Club. It has been a staple of the PGA Tour's early-season 'Hawaii Swing' for decades. The introduction of a 36-hole cut has been a standard feature of PGA Tour events since the modern tour's formation, designed to streamline the field for weekend television coverage and reduce logistical demands. The specific cut rule of top 65 and ties was formally adopted by the PGA Tour for the 2019-2020 season, replacing the previous rule of top 70 and ties. This change slightly increased the difficulty of making the cut, a relevant historical precedent for assessing probabilities. At Waialae, the cut line has demonstrated notable consistency and volatility. For example, the cut line fell at 3-under par in 2023, 1-under in 2022, and 4-under in 2021, reflecting variations in course conditions and field strength. Historically, winners of the event often come from those who comfortably made the cut, but many notable players have missed the cut at Waialae, underscoring the challenge it presents. The event's history provides a rich dataset for analyzing which player profiles tend to succeed on this specific course layout.
Beyond the immediate betting or trading interest, the outcome of a player making the cut at a PGA Tour event has significant professional and financial ramifications for the golfer. Making the cut guarantees a monetary payout from the tournament purse, which for the Sony Open is typically over $7 million, with last place for those making the cut earning approximately $20,000. It also provides valuable Official World Golf Ranking points and FedExCup points, which are critical for maintaining tour status, qualifying for major championships, and securing sponsorships. For prediction market participants, accurately forecasting cut outcomes tests analytical models against the high variance of professional golf, where even top-ranked players can miss cuts with surprising frequency. This market serves as a microcosm for assessing skill in predicting binary outcomes in sports, distinct from forecasting tournament winners. The data generated from such markets can also contribute to broader understanding of performance volatility and the value of consistency in professional athletics.
As of late 2024, planning is underway for the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii. The PGA Tour's schedule for the 2026 season has not been finalized, but the event is expected to maintain its traditional January slot following the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Player qualification criteria for the 2026 event will follow standard PGA Tour regulations, including exemptions for top finishers from the previous season's FedExCup standings, recent tournament winners, and sponsor's invitations. The specific identity of 'Player X' in the prediction market contract will be determined closer to the event based on the official field release, which typically occurs several weeks prior. Prediction market activity will intensify as the tournament approaches and player form from early-season events becomes known.
After 36 holes of play, the field is reduced to the top 65 golfers and any golfers tied for 65th place. These players advance to compete in the third and fourth rounds. This is the standard PGA Tour cut rule implemented for the 2019-2020 season.
If weather causes the tournament to be shortened to 36 or 54 holes, the PGA Tour's competition committee will determine if a cut is applied and when. The prediction market's early close condition related to a winner being declared would become relevant in such a scenario, potentially affecting resolution.
The cut line is not a pre-set score. It is determined by the aggregate scores of the players after two rounds. The score of the 65th-ranked player (including ties) becomes the cut line. Players with a score equal to or better than that number make the cut.
Yes, all players in the field, regardless of how they qualified (e.g., tour member, sponsor exemption, amateur), are subject to the same cut rule. They must be within the top 65 and ties after 36 holes to continue playing on the weekend.
The winning score for the 72-hole tournament typically ranges from 15-under to 25-under par. This is distinct from the cut line, which usually falls between 1-under and 4-under par, highlighting the scoring separation between merely making the cut and contending for victory.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
120 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Ben Griffin make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 92% |
Will Nick Taylor make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 85% |
Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 84% |
Will Aaron Rai make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 82% |
Will Jordan Spieth make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 80% |
Will Chris Gotterup make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 77% |
Will Keegan Bradley make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 75% |
Will Eric Cole make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 75% |
Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 75% |
Will Corey Conners make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 72% |
Will Si Woo Kim make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 61% |
Will Robert MacIntyre make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 60% |
Will Zachary Bauchou make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 52% |
Will Jake Knapp make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 51% |
Will Vince Whaley make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 51% |
Will Rico Hoey make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 51% |
Will Michael Kim make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 51% |
Will Kevin Roy make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 51% |
Will Zac Blair make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Takumi Kanaya make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Seamus Power make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Ricky Castillo make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Patrick Rodgers make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Pierceson Coody make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Nick Dunlap make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Mac Meissner make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Maverick McNealy make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Max McGreevy make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Matthew McCarty make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Kurt Kitayama make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will John VanDerLaan make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will J.J. Spaun make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will John Parry make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Hao-Tong Li make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Harry Hall make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Emiliano Grillo make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Davis Riley make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Denny McCarthy make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will David Ford make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Daniel Berger make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Chandler Phillips make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Brian Harman make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Brice Garnett make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Adam Svensson make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Alex Smalley make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Adam Scott make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Austin Eckroat make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Zach Johnson make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Zecheng Dou make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Webb Simpson make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will William Mouw make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Taylor Pendrith make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Taisei Nagasaki make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Tom Kim make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Sam Stevens make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Seung-taek Lee make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Seonghyeon Kim make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Steven Fisk make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Ren Yonezawa make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Ryo Hisatsune make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Russell Henley make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Ryan Gerard make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Rafael Campos make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Pontus Nyholm make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Peter Malnati make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Patton Kizzire make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Neal Shipley make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Matti Schmid make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Marcelo Rozo make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Matthieu Pavon make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Mark Hubbard make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Michael Brennan make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Lee Hodges make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Kristoffer Reitan make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Keita Nakajima make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Keith Mitchell make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Kota Kaneko make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Kensei Hirata make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Jordan L. Smith make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will John Keefer make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Jeffrey Kang make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Joe Highsmith make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Isaiah Salinda make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Hank Lebioda make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Gordon Sargent make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Emilio Gonzalez make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Dylan Wu make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Danny Walker make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Doug Ghim make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Davis Chatfield make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Daniel Brown make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Chad Ramey make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Christo Lamprecht make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Chris Kirk make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Cameron Davis make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Beau Hossler make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Billy Horschel make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Bud Cauley make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Brian Campbell make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Austin Smotherman make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Adam Schenk make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Adrien Saddier make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will A.J. Ewart make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Anson Cabello make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Yuta Sugiura make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 48% |
Will Tony Finau make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 48% |
Will Sahith Theegala make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 48% |
Will Nicolas Echavarria make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 48% |
Will Luke Clanton make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 48% |
Will Jacob Bridgeman make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 48% |
Will Gary Woodland make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 48% |
Will Erik Van Rooyen make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 48% |
Will Chandler Blanchet make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 48% |
Will Tom Hoge make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 38% |
Will Vijay Singh make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 35% |
Will Collin Morikawa make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 31% |
Will Kazuki Higa make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 21% |
Will Corey Kozuma make the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii? | Kalshi | 18% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/7d92Jq" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Sony Open in Hawaii: To Make the Cut"></iframe>