H.R. 22, also known as the SAVE Act (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act), is a bill introduced in the 119th United States Congress. The prediction market asks whether this specific bill will be passed by both chambers and signed into law by the end of 2026. The SAVE Act aims to amend the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 to require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for individuals registering to vote in federal elections. It also mandates that states verify citizenship information with federal databases before adding applicants to voter rolls, and it would require states to remove non-citizens from existing voter rolls within 90 days of discovering their ineligibility. The bill was introduced in the House of Representatives on January 3, 2025, by Representative Chip Roy (R-TX), with more than 100 original cosponsors, all Republicans. It is one of the first major election integrity proposals of the new Congress, and it quickly became a focal point of partisan debate. Proponents argue that the bill is necessary to prevent non-citizens from voting, a practice already illegal in federal elections, while opponents contend that it would create unnecessary barriers for eligible citizens, particularly those without easy access to birth certificates or passports, and could disenfranchise millions. As of early 2025, the SAVE Act had passed the House of Representatives but faced an uncertain future in the Senate, where it would need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. The bill's path to becoming law also depends on the stance of the White House, with President Donald Trump having expressed support for the measure during his 2024 campaign. The prediction market reflects the genuine uncertainty about whether the bill can navigate the legislative process, including potential amendments, Senate negotiations, and the possibility of a presidential veto or signing. Interest in this market stems from the broader national conversation about election security, voter ID laws, and the integrity of the electoral process. The outcome could set a precedent for federal voting requirements, affect millions of voters, and influence state-level legislation. Additionally, the SAVE Act has been tied to government funding debates, as some lawmakers have threatened to use it as leverage in appropriations negotiations, which adds another layer of complexity to its prospects.

Historical Context

The SAVE Act is the latest in a long series of federal and state efforts to regulate voter eligibility and identification. The National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) of 1993, also known as the Motor Voter Act, established a national framework for voter registration, requiring states to offer registration at DMVs and other agencies. The NVRA requires applicants to attest to citizenship under penalty of perjury but does not require documentary proof. The Help America Vote Act (HAVA) of 2002 added new requirements for first-time voters who registered by mail, including providing a copy of a valid ID or other documents, but it did not apply to all registrants. In 2013, the Supreme Court's decision in Shelby County v. Holder struck down the preclearance formula of the Voting Rights Act, allowing states with a history of discrimination to change voting laws without federal approval. This ruling led to a wave of state-level voter ID laws, many of which have been challenged in court. The SAVE Act represents an attempt to federalize the documentary proof requirement, which would supersede state laws that currently allow individuals to register without such proof. Previous attempts to pass similar legislation include the Voter ID Act introduced in the 113th Congress (2013-2014) and the SAVE Act introduced in the 117th Congress (2021-2022), both of which failed to advance. The 2025 version, H.R. 22, is the first to pass the House, reflecting the Republican majority's commitment to making election integrity a legislative priority. The bill's fate in the Senate will likely depend on the outcome of the 2024 elections, which gave Republicans a narrow majority, and on whether any Democrats are willing to support it.