The SAVE Act, designated as H.R. 22 in the 119th Congress, is a piece of proposed legislation that would require documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration in federal elections. The bill's formal title is the 'Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act.' It aims to amend the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 to mandate that individuals provide proof of U.S. citizenship, such as a passport or birth certificate, when registering to vote. The legislation would also require states to remove non-citizens from existing voter rolls and allow election officials to access federal databases to verify citizenship status. The bill's proponents argue it is necessary to prevent non-citizens from voting, while opponents contend it would create barriers to voter registration and is a solution to a problem that does not exist at a meaningful scale. The prediction market asks whether this specific bill will be signed into law by the end of 2026. Interest in the market stems from its connection to ongoing national debates about election integrity, immigration, and voting rights, making its legislative progress a significant political indicator.

Historical Context

The current debate over voter citizenship verification has roots in the 1993 National Voter Registration Act (NVRA), also known as the 'Motor Voter' law. The NVRA simplified voter registration by allowing people to register at state motor vehicle agencies, but it required applicants to attest to their citizenship under penalty of perjury rather than submit documentary proof. This system has been the federal standard for over three decades. In 2013, the Supreme Court's decision in Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council of Arizona struck down an Arizona law requiring documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration forms, ruling it was preempted by the NVRA. The Court stated that states must accept the federal form, which uses the attestation method. The SAVE Act is a direct legislative response to this ruling, seeking to amend the NVRA itself to explicitly require the proof Arizona sought. Previous attempts at similar federal legislation, such as proposals in the mid-2000s, have failed to gain sufficient traction, often stalling in committee or facing Senate filibusters.

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