Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Kraków mayoral election winner?

Total Volume

$10.06K

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Markets

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Kraków mayoral election winner?

Vol

$10.06K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $10.06K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.06K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?	Kalshi	99%
Will Aleksandra Owca win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?	Kalshi	13%
Will Michał Drewnicki win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?	Kalshi	10%
Will Sławomir Pietrzyk win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?	Kalshi	1%
Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?	Kalshi	1%
Will Michał Klimek win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?	Kalshi	1%
Will Marian Banaś win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jan Hoffman win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?	Kalshi	1%
Will Daria Gosek-Popiołek win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?	Kalshi	1%
Will Bartosz Bocheńczak win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$10.06K

Volume

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About This Event

in 2026 If X wins the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Kraków mayoral election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2026

If X wins the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Sławomir Pietrzyk wins the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sławomir Pietrzyk win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 27, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Michał Klimek win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Michał Drewnicki win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 27, 2027): Vol $49
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Marian Banaś win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 27, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 27, 2027): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jan Hoffman win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Daria Gosek-Popiołek win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 27, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Bartosz Bocheńczak win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Aleksandra Owca win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 27, 2027): Vol $405
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Kraków mayoral election winner?

Volume$10.06K

Markets10

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KALSHI

Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

If Łukasz Gibała wins the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the e

KALSHI

Will Aleksandra Owca win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Aleksandra Owca win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

If Aleksandra Owca wins the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the

KALSHI

Will Michał Drewnicki win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Michał Drewnicki win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

If Michał Drewnicki wins the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if th

KALSHI

Will Sławomir Pietrzyk win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Sławomir Pietrzyk win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

If Sławomir Pietrzyk wins the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if t

KALSHI

Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

If Monika Piątkowska wins the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if t

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/7hakpq" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Kraków mayoral election winner?"></iframe>

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Kraków mayoral election winner?

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Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Kraków mayoral election winner?

Markets (10)

Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Aleksandra Owca win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Aleksandra Owca win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Michał Drewnicki win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Michał Drewnicki win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Sławomir Pietrzyk win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Sławomir Pietrzyk win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

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Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Kraków mayoral election winner?

Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Aleksandra Owca win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Aleksandra Owca win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Michał Drewnicki win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Michał Drewnicki win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Sławomir Pietrzyk win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Sławomir Pietrzyk win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?

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