This prediction market focuses on whether former U.S. President Donald Trump will hold an in-person meeting with Reza Pahlavi, the exiled former Crown Prince of Iran and a prominent opposition figure, by January 31, 2026. The market resolves based on verifiable evidence of a direct personal interaction, such as a conversation or handshake, not mere proximity. The topic sits at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy, Iranian diaspora politics, and the 2024 presidential election's potential aftermath. Interest stems from Trump's history of unconventional diplomatic engagements and Pahlavi's role as a symbolic leader for many Iranians opposing the current Islamic Republic. A meeting would signal a significant political alignment, potentially previewing a future Trump administration's approach to Iran. Recent developments, including Pahlavi's increased lobbying in Washington and Trump's vocal criticism of the Biden administration's Iran policy, have fueled speculation about such an encounter. Observers are monitoring Trump's campaign statements and Pahlavi's travel schedule for clues, making this a tangible measure of shifting political alliances.

Historical Context

The context for this potential meeting is rooted in the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which overthrew the Pahlavi monarchy and established the Islamic Republic. Reza Pahlavi, then 18, fled the country. For decades, the Pahlavi name was associated with the U.S.-backed Shah's regime, which was criticized for its authoritarianism but also its modernization efforts. U.S. policy officially avoided the Pahlavi family, viewing engagement as counterproductive to diplomacy with Tehran. This began to shift after nationwide protests in Iran, particularly following the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022. Pahlavi's advocacy gained new traction in Washington. In a significant precedent, the Biden administration granted Pahlavi a meeting with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in October 2022, marking a notable elevation of his status. Furthermore, Donald Trump's presidency established a pattern of direct engagement with foreign opposition figures. In February 2020, Trump met with Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó in the Oval Office, demonstrating his willingness to use such meetings as tools of diplomatic pressure. This historical pattern makes a meeting with Pahlavi a plausible future action.

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