GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

Montana Senate winner?

Name: Montana Senate winner?
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$621.01K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Montana Senate winner?

Vol

$621.01K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $118.10K

Kalshi

markets · $502.91K

Price Spread

0.4%avg

max 0.7%

Arbitrage

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $621.01K

81%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	91%	91%	0%
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	1%	1%	1%

Single-Platform Markets(2)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

91%

Top Probability

$621.01K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Montana Senate winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $621.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $73.0K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.50)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (3 mkts) vs Kalshi (3 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $40.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $79.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $59.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $209.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 90.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Independents win the Senate race in Montana?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $213.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $18.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

Montana Senate winner?

Volume$502.91K

Markets3

POLYMARKETPolitics

Montana Senate Election Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any a

Volume$118.10K

Markets3

4 of 4

Sort:

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average90.9%

Polymarket+0.2%

91.0%

Kalshi

90.8%

Difference:0.2%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 91.0¢No 9.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 90.8¢No 9.2¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Montana?

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for deta

POLYMARKET

Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 8.1¢No 92.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

KALSHI

Will Independents win the Senate race in Montana?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.4¢No 92.7¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Independents win the Senate race in Montana?

If Seth Bodnar (as an Independent) is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Earl

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average1.0%

Polymarket

0.7%

Kalshi+0.7%

1.4%

Difference:0.7%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢

KKalshi

Yes 1.4¢No 98.7¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Montana?

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for deta

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Next Market Closes

27d 19h remaining

Nov 03, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

46¢

Polymarket

46¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/7itREz" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Montana Senate winner?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Montana Senate winner?