GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

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Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

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9 markets tracked

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)	Kalshi	51%
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (OpenAI)	Kalshi	38%
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (xAI)	Kalshi	10%
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Google)	Kalshi	4%
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Z.ai)	Kalshi	1%
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Moonshot AI)	Kalshi	1%
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (DeepSeek)	Kalshi	1%
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Baidu)	Kalshi	1%
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Alibaba)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

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About This Event

On Dec 31, 2026 If X has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Dec 31, 2026

If X has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Z.ai has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Z.ai)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (xAI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (OpenAI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Moonshot AI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Google)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (DeepSeek)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Baidu)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Alibaba)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets9

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KALSHI

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

If Anthropic has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (OpenAI)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (OpenAI)

If OpenAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (xAI)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (xAI)

If xAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Google)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Google)

If Google has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Z.ai)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHICompanies

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Z.ai)

If Z.ai has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

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Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Markets (9)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (OpenAI)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (OpenAI)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (xAI)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (xAI)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Google)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Google)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Z.ai)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Z.ai)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Anthropic)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (OpenAI)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (OpenAI)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (xAI)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (xAI)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Google)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Google)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Z.ai)

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? (Z.ai)

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