Name: First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

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First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate) | PredictPedia

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25 markets tracked

duplicate Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(25)

Market	Platform	Price
duplicate Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	100%
duplicate Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Doug Burgum be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Brooke Rollins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Scott Turner be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Sean Duffy be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Chris Wright be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Linda McMahon be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Doug Collins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Russell T. Vought be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will John Ratcliffe be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Jamieson Greer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Mike Waltz be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%
duplicate Will Kelly Loeffler be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (305 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resign

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $72.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.46M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. duplicate Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. duplicate Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. duplicate Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. duplicate Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. duplicate Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. duplicate Will Doug Burgum be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. duplicate Will Brooke Rollins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. duplicate Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. duplicate Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. duplicate Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. duplicate Will Scott Turner be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. duplicate Will Sean Duffy be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. duplicate Will Chris Wright be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. duplicate Will Linda McMahon be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. duplicate Will Doug Collins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. duplicate Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. duplicate Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $827
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. duplicate Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. duplicate Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. duplicate Will Russell T. Vought be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. duplicate Will John Ratcliffe be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. duplicate Will Jamieson Greer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. duplicate Will Mike Waltz be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. duplicate Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 25. duplicate Will Kelly Loeffler be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

304d 8h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

4¢

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First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)

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duplicate Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

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Events (1)

First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)

Markets (25)

duplicate Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

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duplicate Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)

duplicate Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

duplicate Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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