$8.50K
1
25
$8.50K
1
25
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resign
Prediction markets are currently pricing in significant uncertainty regarding the first departure from a potential Trump Cabinet by the end of 2026. The leading contract, specifically asking if Stephen Miran will be the first to leave, is trading at 44% on Polymarket. This price indicates the market sees a slightly-below-even chance of this specific outcome, effectively viewing it as a toss-up with a lean toward it not happening. With thin liquidity of just $9,000 spread across related markets, these odds are preliminary and highly sensitive to new information.
The primary factor is the unique profile of Stephen Miran, a former Treasury official and key fundraiser for Trump's 2024 campaign. His potential role, likely in economic or financial policy, would place him in a high-stress domain where policy disagreements or implementation failures could prompt an early exit. Historical precedent from the first Trump administration, which saw rapid turnover, especially among staffers in demanding positions, informs this pricing. Furthermore, his background as a finance professional, rather than a lifelong political operative, could make a cabinet role less of a terminal career goal, increasing the perceived likelihood of a voluntary departure.
The odds will be most directly changed by the official announcement of cabinet appointments following the 2024 inauguration. If Miran is named to a high-conflict post like Treasury or OMB, his probability of being the first to leave could rise. Conversely, if he is appointed to a more stable role or not appointed at all, the probability would collapse to near zero. Key catalysts include the initial 6-12 month period of the administration, where early legislative or market challenges could trigger resignations. The market's thin liquidity means any rumor or news report regarding internal administration friction will cause sharp price movements. Monitoring confirmation hearings and initial policy rollout success in early 2025 will be critical for updating these predictions.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting which member of a potential future Trump administration cabinet would be the first to depart from their position between December 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026. The market resolves based on the next publicly announced resignation or removal of a pre-listed individual from the cabinet. If no such departure occurs within the specified timeframe, the market resolves to 'None before 2027'. This speculative instrument serves as a barometer for political stability and internal dynamics within a hypothetical second Trump term, reflecting investor sentiment on potential administration turnover. The interest stems from the historically high turnover observed during Donald Trump's first term, where cabinet-level positions experienced significant churn, including multiple high-profile departures like Rex Tillerson, Jeff Sessions, and John Kelly. Analysts and political observers closely monitor such markets for early signals of policy shifts, internal conflicts, or administration weaknesses. The topic gains relevance from the 2024 presidential election cycle, where Donald Trump is a leading candidate, making the composition and durability of his potential cabinet a subject of intense scrutiny and speculation.
Cabinet turnover during Donald Trump's first term (2017-2021) was historically high, providing critical context for this prediction market. According to a Brookings Institution analysis, the Trump administration's 'A Team' of cabinet and senior officials experienced a 91% turnover rate over four years, the highest of any modern presidency. Key early departures set precedents. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was fired via tweet in March 2018 after public policy disagreements. Attorney General Jeff Sessions resigned in November 2018 following prolonged criticism from Trump over recusing himself from the Russia investigation. Chief of Staff John Kelly departed in December 2018 amid reports of internal clashes. This pattern of rapid turnover, often following public disputes or loss of confidence, created an environment of instability that defined the administration's personnel management. The historical precedent suggests that in a potential second term, early cabinet departures would not be anomalous but rather a continuation of established management tendencies, making the timing and identity of the first departure a significant political event.
The stability of a presidential cabinet has profound implications for governance, policy continuity, and national confidence. High turnover disrupts policy implementation, creates leadership vacuums in critical agencies like Defense, State, and Justice, and can signal internal dysfunction to both domestic and international audiences. For financial markets and businesses, cabinet instability creates regulatory uncertainty, affecting investment decisions and economic planning. Politically, an early cabinet departure can weaken a president's standing with Congress, embolden opposition, and fracture the governing coalition. It often triggers media narratives about a 'chaotic' administration, impacting public perception and the president's ability to advance a legislative agenda. For the individuals involved, being the first to leave can define their political legacy, either as a principled resigner or a casualty of internal strife, influencing their future career prospects within or outside government.
As of late 2024, no Trump cabinet for a potential second term has been formally announced. Speculation is based on public statements, advisor lists, and individuals seen as loyal to the former president. The prediction market is purely anticipatory, operating on hypotheticals drawn from the 2024 campaign trail and historical patterns. The official list of individuals covered by the market contract would be determined by the market operator at the start of the prediction period, following the 2024 election and any subsequent cabinet announcements.
The Brookings Institution found a 91% turnover rate among President Trump's 'A Team' of cabinet and senior officials over his four-year term, the highest rate of any modern presidency. This historical volatility is the primary basis for speculation about turnover in a potential second term.
National Security Advisor Michael Flynn was the first senior cabinet-level official to depart, resigning on February 13, 2017, after 24 days in office. His departure followed revelations about contacts with Russian officials and misleading Vice President Pence.
Participants trade shares based on their probability assessment of a specific event, like a cabinet member's departure. Prices fluctuate with news and sentiment, aggregating crowd-sourced forecasts. The market resolves with a payout when the contractually defined event occurs or the time period expires.
Due to the historically unprecedented rate of senior staff turnover during Trump's first term, his potential administration's stability is a major question for politics, policy, and markets. These markets provide a quantified, real-time measure of collective expectations about governance risks.
The market resolves immediately upon the official public announcement that a pre-listed cabinet member is resigning, being removed, or otherwise ceasing to serve. The actual physical departure date can be later, but the announcement is the triggering event.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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25 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 45% |
| Poly | 44% |
| Poly | 44% |
| Poly | 43% |
| Poly | 39% |
| Poly | 38% |
| Poly | 25% |
| Poly | 20% |
| Poly | 15% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 11% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 3% |
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