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Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

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Which ballot measures will pass in California?

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13 markets tracked

Will Proposition 2 pass?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Proposition 2 pass?	Kalshi	86%
Will Proposition 3 pass?	Kalshi	83%
Will Proposition 45 pass?	Kalshi	73%
Will Proposition 42 pass?	Kalshi	70%
Will Proposition 41 pass?	Kalshi	68%
Will Proposition 4 pass?	Kalshi	56%
Will Proposition 37 pass?	Kalshi	55%
Will Proposition 43 pass?	Kalshi	54%
Will Proposition 39 pass?	Kalshi	54%
Will Proposition 5 pass?	Kalshi	52%
Will Proposition 38 pass?	Kalshi	51%
Will Proposition 1 pass?	Kalshi	51%
Will Proposition 44 pass?	Kalshi	30%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

86%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In 2026 If Proposition X passes in California, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which ballot measures will pass in California?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Proposition X passes in California, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Proposition 45 passes in California, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Proposition 45 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Proposition 44 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Proposition 43 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Proposition 42 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Proposition 41 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Proposition 39 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Proposition 38 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Proposition 37 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Proposition 5 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Proposition 4 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Proposition 3 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Proposition 2 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Proposition 1 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

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Markets13

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KALSHI

Will Proposition 2 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.0¢No 14.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Proposition 2 pass?

If Proposition 2 passes in California, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Proposition 3 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Proposition 3 pass?

If Proposition 3 passes in California, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Proposition 45 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Proposition 45 pass?

If Proposition 45 passes in California, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Proposition 42 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.0¢No 30.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Proposition 42 pass?

If Proposition 42 passes in California, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Proposition 41 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.0¢No 32.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Proposition 41 pass?

If Proposition 41 passes in California, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Will Proposition 2 pass?

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Events (1)

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

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Will Proposition 2 pass?

Will Proposition 2 pass?

Will Proposition 3 pass?

Will Proposition 3 pass?

Will Proposition 45 pass?

Will Proposition 45 pass?

Will Proposition 42 pass?

Will Proposition 42 pass?

Will Proposition 41 pass?

Will Proposition 41 pass?

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Will Proposition 2 pass?

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Which ballot measures will pass in California?

Will Proposition 2 pass?

Will Proposition 2 pass?

Will Proposition 3 pass?

Will Proposition 3 pass?

Will Proposition 45 pass?

Will Proposition 45 pass?

Will Proposition 42 pass?

Will Proposition 42 pass?

Will Proposition 41 pass?

Will Proposition 41 pass?

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