Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will the PROMISE Act pass the Senate?

Total Volume

$13.31K

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When will the PROMISE Act pass the Senate?

Vol

$13.31K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $13.31K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.31K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to develop legislative recommendations to achieve at least 50 years of Social Security Trust Fund solvency and establishes expedited congressional procedures for consideration of those recommendations passed the Senate before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to develop legislative recommendations to achieve at least 50 years of Social Security Trust Fund solvency and establishes expedited congressional procedures for consideration of those recommendations passed the Senate before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	8%
Will legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to develop legislative recommendations to achieve at least 50 years of Social Security Trust Fund solvency and establishes expedited congressional procedures for consideration of those recommendations passed the Senate before Nov 21, 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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Top Probability

$13.31K

Volume

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About This Event

legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to develop legislative recommendations to achieve at least 50 years of Social Security Trust Fund solvency and establishes expedited congressional procedures for consideration of those recommendations If legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to develop legislative recommendations to achieve at least 50 years of Social Security Trust Fund solvency and establishes expedited congressional procedures for considerati

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the PROMISE Act pass the Senate?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to develop legislative recommendations to achieve at least 50 years of Social Security Trust Fund solvency and establishes expedited congressional procedures for consideration of those recommendations

If legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to develop legislative recommendations to achieve at least 50 years of Social Security Trust Fund solvency and establishes expedited congressional procedures for considerati

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to develop legislative recommendations to achieve at least 50 years of Social Security Trust Fund solvency and establishes expedited congressional procedures for consideration of those recommendations passed the Senate before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will legislation that requires the Social Security Advisory Board to develop legislative recommendations to achieve at least 50 years of Social Security Trust Fund solvency and establishes expedited congressional procedures for consideration of those recommendations passed the Senate before Nov 21, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 21, 2026): Vol $6.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics