This event has ended. Showing historical data.
$284.20K
1
9
$284.20K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Feb '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahr
Prediction markets currently give a 100% chance that Seoul's highest temperature on February 28 will be 6°C or below. In practical terms, traders are completely certain the day will not be warm. The leading forecast for the specific high is centered on the 2°C to 4°C range, which is a cold late-winter day.
Two main factors explain this near-certain forecast. First, the date itself provides strong historical context. Late February in Seoul is consistently cold. Average highs for the city at this time are typically between 3°C and 6°C, so a prediction solidly within that band aligns with long-term climate patterns.
Second, and more specifically, traders are likely weighing reliable short-term weather models. As the resolution date is only days away, meteorological forecasts have become highly accurate. These professional models almost certainly show a stable cold air mass over the region, with no signs of an unusual warm surge. The market has converged on this data, leaving no real probability for a warmer outlier.
The main event is the day itself, February 28. The official high temperature will be recorded at the Incheon International Airport weather station. Markets will resolve shortly after, once the data is finalized and published on the source website, Wunderground.
There are no earlier decision points or announcements that could change the prediction. All relevant information from weather models is already available and has been priced in by traders.
For short-term weather events like this, prediction markets are typically very accurate. When the event is just days away, markets effectively aggregate professional weather forecasts, which have high precision. The main limitation isn't the market's mechanism, but the inherent small chance of a highly unexpected weather anomaly. In this case, that risk is seen as virtually zero, hence the 100% odds. For comparison, markets are less reliable for long-range seasonal forecasts months in advance.
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certain outcome for Seoul's weather on February 28. On Polymarket, the contract "Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on February 28?" is trading at 100%. This price indicates traders see virtually no chance of the temperature exceeding 6°C. With $284,000 in total volume across related markets, there is enough liquidity to consider this a consensus view, not just thin trading. The market is in its final hours before resolution.
Two concrete factors explain the extreme market confidence. First, the historical climate data for Seoul in late February is definitive. The average high temperature for the city at this time is between 3°C and 5°C. A reading above 6°C would be a significant anomaly. Second, short-term weather forecasts from major meteorological services, which are the basis for resolution, have consistently shown a stable cold air mass over the region. These forecasts have not wavered in the days leading to the event, eliminating the uncertainty that typically drives price movement in weather markets.
For a market priced at 100%, the only factor that could change the odds would be a catastrophic failure of the resolution process, such as a data error from the specified source, Wunderground. The meteorological conditions themselves are now locked in. Traders have effectively treated this as a resolved event based on highly reliable forecast models. The remaining activity is likely positional settlement between holders of the opposing "above 6°C" contract, which is trading at 0%.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station in Seoul, South Korea, on February 28, 2026. The market resolves based on data from Wunderground's historical weather portal, specifically the highest temperature recorded at the official station (RKSI) for that date. Participants will predict which temperature range will contain the official high. This type of market transforms a routine meteorological observation into a tradable financial instrument, allowing individuals to speculate on short-term climate outcomes. Interest stems from both meteorological enthusiasts tracking seasonal anomalies and prediction market participants analyzing weather volatility as an asset class. The specific focus on February places it within the tail end of Seoul's winter, a period known for significant temperature swings as the region transitions toward spring. Accurate forecasting requires understanding local climatology, recent weather patterns, and potential influences from broader phenomena like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The market's resolution source, Wunderground, aggregates data from automated weather stations, with the Incheon Airport station serving as a primary reference for the Seoul Capital Area due to its consistent observation standards and international reporting protocols.
Seoul's climate is classified as humid continental, with cold, dry winters and hot, humid summers. February sits squarely within the winter season, but it also marks a period of transition. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that average daily high temperatures in Seoul for February range from approximately 1.5°C to 4.5°C, with significant variability. The record high temperature for any February day in Seoul, based on data from the Seoul Meteorological Observatory, is 18.6°C, recorded on February 24, 2021. This event was linked to an intense föhn wind effect and a powerful ridge of high pressure. Conversely, extreme cold is also possible. On February 16, 1977, the daily high temperature in Seoul was only -10.7°C. The specific station for this market, Incheon International Airport, has its own climatology. Since the airport opened in 2001, its February temperature records have been consistently tracked. Its coastal location generally makes it slightly cooler in summer and slightly milder in winter compared to downtown Seoul, though cold air outbreaks affect the entire region. The precedent for prediction markets on weather outcomes dates back over a decade, with platforms like PredictIt and Metaculus offering contracts on hurricane landfalls, seasonal temperatures, and rainfall totals. These markets test the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis against professional meteorological forecasts.
Beyond being a speculative instrument, this market reflects the growing financialization of climate data. Accurate temperature predictions have direct economic consequences. For South Korea, an unusually warm or cold late February can impact energy demand for heating, agricultural planning for early-season crops, and retail sales of seasonal goods. The construction and transportation sectors also monitor weather closely for operational planning. For prediction market platforms and participants, weather markets provide a near-ideal testing ground. The outcome is objective, verifiable, and free from subjective judgment, making it a pure test of forecasting acumen. These markets can also aggregate dispersed information, potentially producing a collective forecast that rivals or exceeds official meteorological models. The data from such markets is studied by economists and social scientists interested in information aggregation and decision-making under uncertainty. Furthermore, consistent participation in these markets helps build a track record for individuals and algorithms, which can be applied to more complex prediction domains.
As of late 2024, the focus for a February 2026 forecast is on long-range climate drivers. The ENSO state is a primary consideration. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's forecasts suggest a transition toward neutral conditions following the 2023-2024 El Niño, with uncertainty about the phase for the 2025-2026 winter. Seasonal forecast models will begin to produce more relevant output in the summer and fall of 2025. In the immediate term, participants are analyzing the February temperature trends from 2024 and 2025 to identify any persistent warming or cooling patterns in the region. The prediction market itself is not yet active for this specific date but will likely open for trading several months to a year in advance, allowing positions to be taken based on evolving seasonal forecasts.
The maximum temperature typically occurs in the mid-afternoon, between 2 PM and 3 PM local time (KST). Solar heating reaches its peak effect several hours after solar noon. However, if a warm front passes in the morning, the high could be recorded earlier in the day.
Incheon International Airport Station (RKSI) is used because it is an official, consistently maintained aviation weather station with long-term, reliable data. Its measurements are taken under strict international standards, minimizing site changes or urban heat island biases that can affect stations in densely developed city centers.
Specific daily weather forecasts are not skillful beyond about 10 days. For a date years in advance, forecasters rely solely on climatology (historical averages and ranges) and the anticipated state of seasonal climate patterns like ENSO. The prediction market price will reflect the collective judgment on these probabilistic factors.
Yes, but to a lesser degree than in central Seoul. Incheon Airport is on a developed island but is surrounded by water and open spaces. While urban development on Yeongjongdo has increased, the station's temperature trend likely includes a smaller urban heat island component compared to downtown stations, making it a more stable long-term reference.
Market operators define resolution rules in advance to handle such contingencies. Typically, they would specify a backup source, such as the official KMA climate data portal, or a defined waiting period for the primary source to be restored. The exact fallback procedure should be detailed in the market's official description.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 30% |
| Poly | 28% |
| Poly | 28% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
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