Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETOther

Precipitation in London in October?

Name: Precipitation in London in October?
End: 2027-01-08T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$19.97K

Events

Markets

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Precipitation in London in October?

Vol

$19.97K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.97K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.97K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will London have less than 35mm of precipitation in October?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will London have less than 35mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	39%
Will London have between 45-60mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	20%
Will London have between 35-45mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	16%
Will London have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	14%
Will London have between 85-110mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	12%
Will London have between 60-70mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	5%
Will London have 110mm or more of precipitation in October?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$19.97K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in October, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for October 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Precipitation in London in October?
**Category:** Other | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 8, 2027 (89 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in October, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for October 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in October, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.6K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.56)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will London have less than 35mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will London have between 35-45mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will London have between 45-60mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will London have between 60-70mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $517
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will London have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will London have between 85-110mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will London have 110mm or more of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $956
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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