Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETEarnings

Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?

Name: Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?
End: 2026-01-27T14:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$112.65

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Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?

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Polymarket

markets · $112.65

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $112.65

100%

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1 market tracked

Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?	Poly	54%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$112.65

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

As of market creation, Union Pacific is estimated to release earnings on January 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Union Pacific's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.87 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Union Pacific reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.87 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Unio

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?
**Category:** Earnings | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 27, 2026 (12 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** As of market creation, Union Pacific is estimated to release earnings on January 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Union Pacific's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.87 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Union Pacific reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.87 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Unio

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"As of market creation, Union Pacific is estimated to release earnings on January 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Union Pacific's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.87 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Union Pacific reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.87 for th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $113
* **Total Liquidity:** $689
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.16)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 27, 2026): Vol $113
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

11d 2h remaining

Jan 27, 2026 2:00 PM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

54¢

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Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?

Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?

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Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)