Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?

Total Volume

$11.42K

Events

Markets

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Which firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?

Vol

$11.42K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $11.42K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.42K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40))

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40))	Kalshi	56%
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt))	Kalshi	21%
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP))	Kalshi	11%
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (M1 Garand rifle (.30-06))	Kalshi	7%
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30))	Kalshi	5%
Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Remington Model 700 bolt-action rifle (.30-06))	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

56%

Top Probability

$11.42K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If Winchester Model X Y wins the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Winchester Model X Y wins the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) wins the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close conditi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30))
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $589
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40))
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Remington Model 700 bolt-action rifle (.30-06))
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $358
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (M1 Garand rifle (.30-06))
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $256
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP))
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt))
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?

Volume$11.42K

Markets6

6 of 6

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KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40))

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40))

If Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) wins the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close conditi

KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt))

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt))

If 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt) wins the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. E

KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP))

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP))

If Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP) wins the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Ear

KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (M1 Garand rifle (.30-06))

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (M1 Garand rifle (.30-06))

If M1 Garand rifle (.30-06) wins the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: Th

KALSHI

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30))

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30))

If Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) wins the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close conditi

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17¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/7v9GEW" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?"></iframe>

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Which firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?

Which firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?

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Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40))

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Which firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?

Markets (6)

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (M1 Garand rifle (.30-06))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (M1 Garand rifle (.30-06))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30))

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40))

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (M1 Garand rifle (.30-06))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (M1 Garand rifle (.30-06))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30))

Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote? (Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30))

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Discussion

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