Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 25, 2026?
K 1.1K contracts
1
6
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 25, 2026?
K 1.1K contracts
1
6
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 78° to 79° at 48%.
Kalshi
- 78° to 79°48%
- 76° to 77°29.5%
- 80° to 81°16.5%
- 74° to 75°3.5%
- 82° or above2.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 1.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
6
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 25, 2026 If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles, CLILAX, for Oct 25, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above. The Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM local time on October 25, 2026 regardless of any data releases or events occurring. Expiration will occur on the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the data for October 25, 2026, or one week after October 25, 2026.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks about the highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 25, 2026. Under the rules, the market resolves to Yes if the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles, CLILAX, for Oct 25, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to The Weather Company [1]. The rules warn that "Not all weather data is the same" and name the Weather Company's reported value as the official figure, so forecasts from other services do not determine the outcome [1]. Preliminary Weather Company readings may differ from the final value because of rounding and conversion [1].
The timing rules differ from the market's listed end time. Last Trading Time is 11:59 PM local time on October 25, 2026, regardless of data releases. Expiration occurs on the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the data, or one week after October 25, 2026 [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is timestamped 2026-10-24 15:00 UTC and was retrieved at 15:58 UTC that day [1]. These prices describe that moment only and may no longer be current.
Six temperature bands are included, all marked active. The quoted Yes prices are 0.48 for 78-79 degrees, 0.295 for 76-77, 0.165 for 80-81, 0.035 for 74-75, 0.025 for above 81, and 0.005 for below 74 [1]. These are snapshot quotes, not executable prices or verified probabilities. The Yes prices sum to about 1.005, so they should be read as rough relative levels rather than a precise distribution.
Coverage for this saved event is complete: six of six markets are included, with no partial sample flag [1]. The sample warning still notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Because all bands come from one event, they should be compared with each other, not used to infer an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it does not report how many traders hold each view. Volume is not included here and would not measure liquidity or participation.
The market's endDate field lists November 1, 2026 at 14:00 UTC, but the source excerpt states that the listed end time is not supplied [1]. Readers should rely on the rule text for timing and not treat that field as the settlement moment.
Preliminary data may be revised. Expiration may be held until a non-materially-erroneous revision is published or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available, markets resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi [1].
References
- Kalshi: Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 25, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This market asks what the highest temperature will be in Los Angeles on October 25, 2026. The contract is tied to a specific station, CLILAX, and to the daily maximum as reported by The Weather Company. Under the provider's rules, a range market resolves to Yes if that reported maximum falls within the stated band [1]. The event is listed on Kalshi as a weather contract in the Climate and Weather category, and it currently contains six range-style markets covering temperature bands from below 74 degrees to above 81 degrees [1]. The location is the city of Los Angeles, the most populous city in California and the principal city of a large metropolitan area [2]. The contract does not measure a city-wide average or a general forecast. It measures one reported daily maximum at one station. Other weather services may publish different numbers for the same day, and the provider notes that its own reported figure is the value used to settle the market [1]. The saved market records list six contracts in this event, and the saved sample includes all six. The contracts are mutually exclusive bands, so only one band can contain the official maximum. The prices shown are snapshots from the time the provider data was observed, not live executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures one number: the maximum temperature recorded at the Los Angeles station, CLILAX, for October 25, 2026, as reported by The Weather Company [1]. Each band market asks whether that reported maximum will land inside a specific range. Because the bands divide the possible outcomes, the market is useful for seeing how participants price a narrow temperature outcome for a single day. The rules also show that the settlement source matters more than general weather impressions. The provider states that other sources such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may help inform a view, but the official value is the figure from The Weather Company [1]. Preliminary readings may differ from the final published value because of rounding and unit conversion, and a later correction for a material error can delay expiration [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly does a Yes outcome require?
A Yes outcome requires the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles station CLILAX for October 25, 2026, as reported by The Weather Company, to fall within the band named in that market's title [1].
Which weather source determines the result?
The rules name The Weather Company as the source. The provider says that other weather services may help guide a decision, but the official and final value used for resolution is the one reported by The Weather Company [1].
Why might the number change after the first reading?
The rules say preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. If a material error is found in the initial non-preliminary publication, expiration may be held until a corrected revision is published or until the expiration date, whichever comes first [1].
When does trading stop?
The rules state that the last trading time is 11:59 PM local time on October 25, 2026, regardless of any data releases or events occurring on that date [1].
When does the contract expire?
The rules say expiration occurs at the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the data for October 25, 2026, or one week after October 25, 2026 [1]. The saved market record also lists an end date of November 1, 2026 at 14:00 UTC, but that field is a provider record and should be read alongside the rule-based expiration timing rather than as a separately announced event date [1].
What do the prices in the saved snapshot show?
The saved snapshot shows the 78 to 79 degree band at 0.48 Yes, the 76 to 77 degree band at 0.295, the 80 to 81 degree band at 0.165, the 74 to 75 degree band at 0.035, the above 81 degree band at 0.025, and the below 74 degree band at 0.005 [1]. These are observed prices from a past snapshot. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the temperature outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
