Will Trump declare war on Iran by...? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

Name: Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$818.13K

Events

Markets

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Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $818.13K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $818.13K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$818.13K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United State

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, April 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United State

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the s"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $266.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $24.7K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.77)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $266.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/7zNeS2" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?"></iframe>

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Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

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Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)