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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto

Bitcoin price on May 4?

Name: Bitcoin price on May 4?
End: 2026-05-04T16:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$57.29K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Bitcoin price on May 4?

Vol

$57.29K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $57.29K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $57.29K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 4?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 4?	Poly	40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4?	Poly	36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 4?	Poly	9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 4?	Poly	9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 4?	Poly	3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 4?	Poly	2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 4?	Poly	2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 4?	Poly	2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 4?	Poly	1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 4?	Poly	1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 4?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$57.29K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bitcoin price on May 4?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 4, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Clo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $57.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $66.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.87)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $13.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $349
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $694
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $13.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $12.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $13.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $636
  DATA: [Yes: 8.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.1% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $258
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $251
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $790
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCrypto