Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single-market snapshot for "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET" from Polymarket, categorized as Crypto [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The source specifies the resolution data as the BTC/USD TWAP data stream and states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Any reader comparing this contract with a Bitcoin price shown elsewhere should check that it uses the same source and window.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation time is 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-01T11:49:53.122Z [1]. These are different times, and the prices below describe the observation time, not the retrieval time.
At observation, the listed prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.000 in this snapshot, but a reader should not treat either figure as a current or tradable price.
The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-01T16:15:00.000Z, and the market status was "active" at observation [1]. The listed end time is when the contract is set to close, not the date of its actual resolution. The evidence does not include a resolution outcome.
The sample covers one market in one provider event, with no partial sample flag [1]. Because no other platform or contract is included, there is no cross-platform comparison to make.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show current prices, trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders. The snapshot cannot explain why the prices were where they were. It also does not show whether the market has resolved, and the source does not provide a resolution result.
A small gap between two outcome prices does not establish an arbitrage opportunity, especially without executable quotes or a comparable contract on another platform. Readers who need current information should consult the provider directly and check the observation and listed close times against the contract rules.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window Bitcoin contract listed on Polymarket under the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET." The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price will be higher or lower over a 15-minute window. Under the rules quoted in the provider's listing, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement is specific. The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink stream and not the price from any other source or spot market [1]. Traders reading the contract therefore need to know which data feed determines the outcome, which may differ from the price shown on a particular exchange. The listing gives a listed end time of 16:15 UTC on November 1, 2026 [1]. This is the scheduled end of the measurement window stated in the contract, not a record of when the market actually closed or resolved. The listing also records the contract's status as active at the time it was observed [1]. The available evidence does not include a final resolution outcome for this contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over one fixed 15-minute window, as determined by a specific Chainlink TWAP data stream [1]. Because the outcome depends on an average across the window compared with the starting price, the result can differ from a comparison of the price at the start and end points alone. Because the rules tie resolution to one named data feed, the contract is a statement about that feed's readings and not a general statement about Bitcoin's price elsewhere [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated 11:00 to 11:15 AM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source is used to settle the contract?
Settlement uses the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules say the market does not follow other sources or spot markets [1].
When is the contract scheduled to end?
The listing gives an end time of 16:15 UTC on November 1, 2026 [1]. That is the listed end time, not a confirmed resolution time.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.