Name: Oct-Dec Unemployment Rate - U.K.
End: 2026-02-17T00:00:00.000Z

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Oct-Dec Unemployment Rate - U.K. | PredictPedia

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6 markets tracked

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.2%?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.2%?	Poly	49%
Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≥5.4%?	Poly	48%
Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.9%?	Poly	48%
Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.0%?	Poly	48%
Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.1%?	Poly	47%
Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.3%?	Poly	47%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Oct-Dec Unemployment Rate - U.K.
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 17, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the UK seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the Labour Force Survey for October to December 2025.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ONS every month at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/previousreleases

The next data release is currently scheduled to

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the UK seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the Labour Force Survey for October to December 2025.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the O"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $133
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 23.93)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 17, 2026): Vol $229
  DATA: [Yes: 47.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≥5.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 17, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 17, 2026): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 17, 2026): Vol $750
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.1%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 17, 2026): Vol $236
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 17, 2026): Vol $208
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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48¢

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Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.2%?

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Events (1)

Oct-Dec Unemployment Rate - U.K.

Markets (6)

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.2%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.2%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≥5.4%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≥5.4%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.9%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.9%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.0%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.0%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.1%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.1%?

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Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.2%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Oct-Dec Unemployment Rate - U.K.

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.2%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.2%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≥5.4%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≥5.4%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.9%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.9%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.0%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.0%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.1%?

Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.1%?

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