Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

Name: Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.37K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

Vol

$8.37K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.37K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.37K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Poly	51%
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Poly	27%
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Poly	13%
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$8.37K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; D Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85;

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (23 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.

This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; D Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.

This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.

This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; D Senate" if oil is less than "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.16M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $22
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics