Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
PM $76.61M
1
2
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
PM $76.61M
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 8.5%.
Polymarket
- December 318.5%
- October 311%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $76.61M
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event asks whether Kharg Island will be "no longer under Iranian control" by a stated deadline. The rules say the market resolves to "Yes" only if Iran "no longer exercises primary governmental or military control" and "another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island" [1]. Temporary raids, isolated landings, sabotage, offshore naval presence, and announcements or threats without actual control do not qualify on their own [1]. If control is "contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date," the market resolves to "No" [1].
The wording contains a discrepancy. The rule text names "March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET" as the deadline [1], but the two saved market titles refer to October 31 and December 31 [1]. The saved records list end times of 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z for the October contract and 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z for the December contract [1]. The saved evidence does not show which deadline governs, so readers should check the live provider page before relying on any single date.
Reading the snapshot
At the observation time of 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, the October contract showed Yes at 0.013 and No at 0.987, while the December contract showed Yes at 0.085 and No at 0.915 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two contracts have different deadlines and different listed end times, so their prices should not be averaged or treated as an arbitrage signal. The saved data does not explain why either price is where it is.
The sample includes both saved markets from one Polymarket event, and the record marks it as not partial [1]. This describes only the saved provider event. It does not establish that these two contracts are every possible outcome.
What remains uncertain
The evidence describes the market at the observation time only. It does not establish current control of the island, recent reporting, or any developments after that snapshot. The provider status was recorded as active [1]. The retrieval time of 2026-10-15T16:41:14.747Z is about half an hour after the observation, so the figures should be read as a record of that window.
Volume and trader counts are not included in the supplied evidence, so they cannot indicate liquidity or how many participants agree with a price. The unresolved deadline discrepancy also means the reader cannot yet confirm which date controls settlement from the saved material alone.
References
- Polymarket: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract asks whether Kharg Island will no longer be under Iranian control by a stated deadline. The saved Polymarket event includes two markets in the sample: one with a deadline of October 31 and one with a deadline of December 31. The market titles and listed end times are the most direct description of the timing in this snapshot [1]. The contract rules set a strict standard. A "Yes" resolution requires that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and that another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, offshore naval presence, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity do not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of lost control also does not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes through a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, it qualifies only once actual control exists on the island. If control is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, the market resolves to "No" [1]. The rules name official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, together with a consensus of credible reporting, as the primary resolution source [1]. The rule text also contains a date of March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, while the listed end time for the event is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. A date in contract rules is not an announced event date, so the rule text should be read as part of the contract wording rather than as a schedule of expected events.
Historical Context
Wikipedia describes Kharg Island as a continental island of Iran in the Persian Gulf, about 25 kilometres off the Iranian coast and 660 kilometres northwest of the Strait of Hormuz. It is also described as providing a sea port for the export of up to 90% of Iran's oil products, with storage for up to 30 million barrels of oil [2]. Background on the wider conflict is also described in Wikipedia. It states that since 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel have been at war with Iran and its regional allies, following the Twelve-Day War in June 2025 and sporadic fighting during the Middle Eastern crisis sparked by the Gaza war [3]. This is historical background from a retrieved encyclopedia article, not a verified report of the island's present control.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a specific, narrow kind of change: whether actual control of a strategically important oil export island passes from Iran to another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority by the deadline. Because the rules exclude military activity that falls short of established control, the contract is not a measure of whether fighting occurs near the island [1]. The island's economic importance, including its role as a port for up to 90% of Iran's oil products [2], explains why the question is of interest, but the rules depend on control rather than economic impact [1]. Prices in the saved sample are snapshots taken at the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. The sample includes all saved markets for this provider event, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome for the situation [1]. Differences in price between the two deadline markets reflect different contract terms and should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Would a military raid or bombardment of Kharg Island make the contract resolve Yes?
Not on its own. The rules state that temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own [1].
Is an announcement that Iran has lost control enough for a Yes resolution?
No. The rules state that an announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established [1].
What happens if control of the island is disputed at the deadline?
The rules state that if control is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, the market will resolve to No [1].
Why do the markets have different end dates?
The saved sample lists one market titled for October 31 and another for December 31, with listed end times that differ accordingly [1]. The rule text separately refers to a March 31, 2026 deadline, so the wording should be checked against the listed end time for each market [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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