GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Name: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$72.75M

Events

Markets

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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Vol

$72.75M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $72.75M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $72.75M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Poly	7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$72.75M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presen

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presen

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.18M
* **Total Liquidity:** $343.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.44)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $963.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $216.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Volume$72.75M

Markets2

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POLYMARKET

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island,

POLYMARKET

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island,

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Next Market Closes

117d 5h remaining

Jan 01, 2027 4:59 AM

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4¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/88gC-X" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?"></iframe>

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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Markets (2)

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

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