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GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

Name: Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner
End: 2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$106.50K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

Vol

$106.50K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $106.50K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

1.2%avg

max 3.0%

Arbitrage

of 6 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $106.50K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(6)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?ARB	83%	86%	3%
Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?ARB	5%	3%	2%
Will Danielle Bethell win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	1%	1%	0%
Will Robert Neuman win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	0%	1%	1%
Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	0%	1%	1%
Will Kyle Duyck win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?	0%	1%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(7)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

86%

Top Probability

$106.50K

Volume

Markets

4.4%

Price Gap

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic Party; however, an overwh

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Oregon Republican Governor nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Oregon Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Prim"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $106.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $60.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.76)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (11 mkts) vs Kalshi (8 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Danielle Bethell win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $8.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $21.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.0% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will Kyle Duyck win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $19.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Robert Neuman win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $9.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $13.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.1% spread between platforms.

### 6. Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $12.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will David Medina be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Ed Diehl be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $6.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Caleb Kintz win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will David Medina win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Brad T. Peters win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Patrick Kopke-Hales win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

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Different

Timing

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KALSHIElections

Oregon Republican Governor nominee?

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Oregon Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

Volume$0.00

Markets8

POLYMARKETPolitics

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

Volume$106.50K

Markets11

13 of 13

Sort:

Arbitrage Opportunity: 3.0% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average84.0%

Polymarket

82.5%

Kalshi+3.0%

85.5%

Difference:3.0% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Prim

Will Christine Drazan be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

If Christine Drazan wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Oregon Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Christine Drazan wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will Ed Diehl be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Ed Diehl be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

If Ed Diehl wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Oregon Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Ed Diehl wins the party's nomination.

POLYMARKET

Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Arbitrage Opportunity: 2.1% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average4.2%

Polymarket+2.1%

5.3%

Kalshi

3.1%

Difference:2.1% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 5.3¢No 94.8¢

KKalshi

Yes 3.1¢No 96.9¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Chris Dudley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

If Chris Dudley wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Oregon Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Chris Dudley wins the party's nomination.

KALSHI

Will David Medina be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will David Medina be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

If David Medina wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Oregon Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after David Medina wins the party's nomination.

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

15¢

Polymarket

15¢

Kalshi

3¢ price gap

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/89imZ7" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner"></iframe>

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Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

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Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

Oregon Republican Governor nominee?

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

Markets (6)

Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Christine Drazan be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

Will Ed Diehl be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

Will Ed Diehl be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Chris Dudley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

Will David Medina be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

Will David Medina be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Oregon Republican Governor nominee?

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Christine Drazan be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

Will Ed Diehl be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

Will Ed Diehl be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Will Chris Dudley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

Will David Medina be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

Will David Medina be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?

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Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

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