Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

South Africa rate decision in November

Total Volume

$401.47

Events

Markets

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South Africa rate decision in November

Vol

$401.47

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $401.47

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $401.47

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?	Kalshi	73%
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?	Kalshi	28%
Will the South African Reserve Bank cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?	Kalshi	28%
Will the South African Reserve Bank cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?	Kalshi	28%
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?	Kalshi	27%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

73%

Top Probability

$401.47

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Nov 19, 2026 meeting If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of X more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others reso

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** South Africa rate decision in November
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 19, 2026 meeting

If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of X more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others reso

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multip"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $401
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the South African Reserve Bank hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the South African Reserve Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the South African Reserve Bank cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the South African Reserve Bank cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $300
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

South Africa rate decision in November

Volume$401.47

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multip

KALSHI

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of hike more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multipl

KALSHI

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of cut more than 25bps at its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple

KALSHI

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of cut 1-25bps at its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy

KALSHI

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.0¢No 73.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of hike 1-25bps at its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy

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36¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/8E4zbM" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="South Africa rate decision in November"></iframe>

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South Africa rate decision in November

South Africa rate decision in November

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Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

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Events (1)

South Africa rate decision in November

Markets (5)

Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

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Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

South Africa rate decision in November

Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut more than 25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

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