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| Market | Platform | Price |
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![]() | Poly | 28% |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or pr
Prediction markets currently assign a 28% probability that Zohran Mamdani will win the 2025 NYC mayoral election and subsequently implement a full rent freeze for stabilized apartments by the end of 2026. A 28% chance indicates the market views this dual outcome as unlikely, but not impossible, reflecting significant skepticism about both the electoral and policy hurdles involved. With $194,000 in trading volume, this market has attracted moderate liquidity, suggesting serious interest from traders weighing this political scenario.
Two primary factors are suppressing the probability. First, the 2025 mayoral election presents a formidable initial barrier. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, despite facing political headwinds, retains the advantages of incumbency. The Democratic primary field is expected to be crowded, making Mamdani's path to victory uncertain. Second, the historical precedent of the Rent Guidelines Board (RGB) makes a full freeze exceptionally rare. The board, whose members are appointed by the mayor, has not set both one-year and two-year renewal increases at 0.0% since 2009. Even under progressive pressure, the RGB typically approves minimal increases, citing operational costs for landlords.
The odds could rise significantly with clear indicators of Mamdani's electoral strength, such as a leading position in credible polls following the June 2025 Democratic primary. A major shift would also require explicit campaign commitments from Mamdani to appoint RGB members committed to a zero-percent increase, coupled with a severe worsening of the city's affordability crisis that builds unprecedented political momentum for a freeze. Conversely, odds would fall further if Mayor Adams consolidates support or if a leading challenger emerges who does not endorse a rent freeze policy. The market will be highly reactive to the RGB's preliminary vote in Spring 2026, which serves as a direct policy indicator.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
$193.71K
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This prediction market topic centers on whether New York City will implement a complete rent freeze for its vast stock of rent-stabilized apartments by the end of 2026, contingent on the election of a specific candidate. The question has two distinct but linked components. First, it hinges on the outcome of the 2025 New York City mayoral election and the victory of Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani, a current New York State Assemblymember. Second, it requires that the New York City Rent Guidelines Board (RGB), a nine-member body appointed by the mayor, sets the annual allowable rent increases for stabilized apartments at 0.0% for both one-year and two-year lease renewals, with this policy in effect by December 31, 2026. The topic is a direct test of a major progressive housing policy promise against the complex political and economic realities of governing New York City. Interest stems from the city's ongoing affordability crisis, the growing influence of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) in local politics, and the historical rarity of a true rent freeze. It merges electoral politics with granular housing policy, making it a high-stakes speculative question for observers of urban policy and New York City's political future.
New York City's rent stabilization system, governing approximately one million apartments, was created in 1969 during a housing shortage. The Rent Guidelines Board was established that same year to set annual rent adjustments. Historically, the board has almost always approved some level of increase, with the debate centering on the percentage. The concept of a full freeze is rare but not unprecedented. In 2020, amid the economic turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic, the RGB voted for a freeze on one-year leases for rent-stabilized apartments, marking the first time it had done so since its inception. However, it approved a 1.0% increase for two-year leases that same year. A true, across-the-board freeze for both lease terms has never been implemented in the system's 55-year history. The 2020 decision was highly contentious and followed by increases in subsequent years. This historical precedent shows that while a freeze is legally possible under extraordinary circumstances, it is a major political and economic deviation from the norm. The push for a freeze is also part of a larger, decades-long conflict between tenant advocates seeking stronger protections and property owners arguing for the financial viability of maintaining housing stock.
The outcome of this question has profound implications for New York City's housing market and social fabric. For the roughly 2.4 million New Yorkers living in rent-stabilized homes, a freeze would provide immediate financial relief and housing security in a city where rent burden is a leading cause of displacement and homelessness. It would represent a major victory for the housing justice movement and solidify the political influence of democratic socialism in municipal governance. Conversely, property owners and real estate interests argue that a mandated freeze would starve buildings of necessary revenue for maintenance and repairs, potentially leading to deterioration of the city's affordable housing stock. It could also discourage new investment in rental housing. Economically, it would represent a significant wealth transfer from landlords to tenants and test the limits of regulatory power over housing. The political ramifications would extend beyond New York, potentially inspiring similar movements in other expensive cities grappling with affordability crises.
As of mid-2024, the political landscape is in a pre-election phase. Mayor Eric Adams is expected to seek re-election in 2025 but faces low approval ratings and a federal investigation into his campaign finances. Zohran Mamdani has officially launched his mayoral campaign, making a universal rent freeze a central plank. The Rent Guidelines Board is preparing for its annual vote in June 2024, with preliminary hearings underway. The board's decision this year, expected to be another increase, will set the immediate policy backdrop against which the 2025 election debate over a freeze will occur. The Democratic primary, scheduled for June 2025, will be the critical electoral hurdle for Mamdani's candidacy.
The RGB is a nine-member board appointed by the Mayor of New York City. Established in 1969, its sole purpose is to set the maximum allowable rent increases each year for the city's approximately one million rent-stabilized apartments. Its votes directly impact the housing costs for about 2.4 million residents.
Yes, but only partially and under extraordinary circumstances. In 2020, the RGB voted to freeze rents (0.0% increase) for one-year lease renewals for rent-stabilized apartments due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it approved a 1.0% increase for two-year leases that same year. A simultaneous freeze for both lease types has never occurred.
The mayor has complete power to appoint all nine members of the RGB, including its chair. These appointments do not require City Council approval. Therefore, a mayor's housing policy philosophy directly shapes the board's composition and, ultimately, its annual votes on rent increases.
Rent-stabilized apartments are a category of regulated housing in NYC where rents can only be increased by a percentage set annually by the Rent Guidelines Board. They typically exist in buildings of six or more units built before 1974. Tenants have the right to renew their leases, and evictions are highly regulated.
Zohran Kwame Mamdani is a Democratic Socialist currently serving as a New York State Assemblymember for parts of Queens. He is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and announced his candidacy for Mayor of New York City in the 2025 election. A universal rent freeze is a key policy proposal of his campaign.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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