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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Name: Lecornu out as French PM by...?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$321.31K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Vol

$321.31K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $321.31K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $321.31K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	Poly	25%
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

25%

Top Probability

$321.31K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lecornu out as French PM by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (170 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end d"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $27.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $23.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.20)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Lecornu  out as French PM by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $20.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Lecornu  out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics